Odd Lots

Rory Johnston, founder of the Commodity Context newsletter and an oil analyst who teaches at the University of Toronto, explains how a prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption could push oil past $200 a barrel. He discusses why refined fuels spiked first. He outlines supply rerouting limits, the role of spare capacity, and how duration and bidding dynamics could magnify shortages and price spikes.

Vlad Tenev, Co-founder and CEO of Robinhood, leads the push into tokenized private shares and new prediction-market integrations. He discusses the fallout from tokenization plans, evolving approaches in Europe and the US, how Robinhood structures retail access to private companies, and plans to integrate prediction markets and new trading instruments for everyday investors.

Henry Blodget, former Wall Street analyst turned media entrepreneur and CEO of Regenerator. He argues AI is still early-stage and compares it to the 1990s internet. He calls the software-doom narrative hysteria and questions OpenAI’s path to profitable unit economics. He warns of euphoric funding, many experimental failures, and how newsrooms can use AI while preserving trust.

Margo Brock, co-founder of Mercury Group who advises on marine logistics and war-risk insurance. Anton Posner, co-founder of Mercury Group and dry-cargo logistics specialist. They discuss which non-oil goods flow through the Strait of Hormuz. They explain surging war-risk premiums and who ends up paying. They cover crew safety, rerouting options, and how trade routes and costs shift under maritime chaos.

Lloyd Blankfein, former chairman and CEO of Goldman Sachs and longtime Wall Street figure, reflects on markets, risk, and globalization. He discusses why he stepped back from tweeting, the mechanics of risk management at top banks, private credit illiquidity, tech and AI risks to finance, and how globalization has shifted recently.

Donald MacKenzie, a University of Edinburgh sociologist who studies finance and technology, discusses the history of ultrafast trading. He traces the leap from human-paced trades to machines operating in nanoseconds. He describes the physical speed race from co-location to fiber and microwave links, the cultural shift toward tech-like trading firms, and parallels between HFT arms races and AI scaling.

Weekend programming plans and the new live TV and radio schedule are introduced. Hosts outline market context for Saturdays and in-depth interviews and previews for Sundays. Information on where and when to watch or listen is highlighted.

James van Geelen, founder of Citrini Research and author of a viral AI scenario, discusses a fast-moving AI capability curve and why he framed a severe 2028 disruption as a scenario to watch. He covers potential rapid white-collar displacement, vulnerabilities in private credit and insurers, agentic AI undermining platforms, and where AI might actually generate profitable returns.

Ryan Petersen, founder and CEO of Flexport, a leader in freight forwarding and customs brokerage. He breaks down the rush for tariff refund claims and the booming secondary market where claims trade for fractions of value. Conversations cover who can claim refunds, how companies rerouted supply chains to dodge tariffs, and the mechanics of filing and valuing refunds. Practical, fast-moving global trade drama.

The conversation digs into why building in New York City costs so much, focusing on soaring insurance premiums tied to strict liability rules. They explore how delays, design changes, and dense site logistics drive overhead. Fraud, limited insurers, and rising deductibles are highlighted alongside labor shortages, aging trades, and tech that might improve safety and speed.