Odd Lots Lots More on the Seaborne Chaos Around the Strait of Hormuz
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Mar 6, 2026 
Margo Brock, co-founder of Mercury Group who advises on marine logistics and war-risk insurance. Anton Posner, co-founder of Mercury Group and dry-cargo logistics specialist. They discuss which non-oil goods flow through the Strait of Hormuz. They explain surging war-risk premiums and who ends up paying. They cover crew safety, rerouting options, and how trade routes and costs shift under maritime chaos.
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Hormuz Disruption Hits Metals And Fertilizers
- The Strait of Hormuz disruption affects much more than oil, hitting aluminum, fertilizer, containerized goods, and inbound raw materials.
- Anton Posner cites Gulf aluminum export halts and spikes in global aluminum and diesel prices as immediate market effects.
War Risk Insurance Can Be Pulled Fast
- War risk insurance is quickly cancellable and market notices triggered mass cancellations after the conflict began.
- Margo Brock explains cancellation windows of two to seven days and rebuy offers rising from 0.0055% to 0.5–1.5% of cargo value.
Prepare For Cost Disputes Over War Risk Premiums
- Expect a fight over who pays added war risk premiums because ships already in port must renew insurance at higher rates.
- Anton Posner warns shippers, cargo interests, and P&I clubs will slug it out on cost allocation.