Odd Lots

Bob Brackett, a Bernstein energy and commodities analyst, breaks down how the Iran war is scrambling global natural gas. He looks at Qatar’s crucial LNG role, why gas has no single world price, and why Asian and poorer buyers get hit first. He also gets into America’s export surge, coal as the fallback fuel, and why metals and fertilizer markets are feeling the squeeze too.

Tom Karako, a missile defense expert at CSIS, breaks down the brutal math behind America’s missile shortages. He gets into why cheap drones can drain pricey interceptors fast. They also explore how analysts estimate secret stockpiles, why factories and rocket motors are bottlenecks, and how shortages ripple across Ukraine, the Middle East, and U.S. allies.

Erica Downs, a Columbia energy policy scholar focused on China’s oil ties, breaks down why Iran’s war hits China differently. She gets into teapot refineries hooked on discounted sanctioned crude. She explores China’s giant stockpiles, wartime planning, and why LNG may be a bigger near-term risk. Plus, how EVs and green tech are reshaping the stakes.

Matt Suiche, a French cybersecurity expert and legendary hacker who founded OnDB, joins to discuss cyberwar and AI. He breaks down recent Iran-Israel digital operations and the rising blend of kinetic strikes on data centers. He explores how AI changes vulnerability discovery, agentic data infrastructure, and the shifting economics of software and security.

Alexis Maxwell, senior analyst on Bloomberg Intelligence's agriculture team who tracks fertilizer markets, explains how the war in Iran is tightening supplies of urea, ammonia and other nitrogen products. She breaks down how fertilizer is made and why production hubs depend on cheap gas. Timing before spring planting, seasonality, and limited reserves raise the risk of shortages and higher food costs.

Rory Johnston, founder of the Commodity Context newsletter and an oil analyst who teaches at the University of Toronto, explains how a prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption could push oil past $200 a barrel. He discusses why refined fuels spiked first. He outlines supply rerouting limits, the role of spare capacity, and how duration and bidding dynamics could magnify shortages and price spikes.

Vlad Tenev, Co-founder and CEO of Robinhood, leads the push into tokenized private shares and new prediction-market integrations. He discusses the fallout from tokenization plans, evolving approaches in Europe and the US, how Robinhood structures retail access to private companies, and plans to integrate prediction markets and new trading instruments for everyday investors.

Henry Blodget, former Wall Street analyst turned media entrepreneur and CEO of Regenerator. He argues AI is still early-stage and compares it to the 1990s internet. He calls the software-doom narrative hysteria and questions OpenAI’s path to profitable unit economics. He warns of euphoric funding, many experimental failures, and how newsrooms can use AI while preserving trust.

Margo Brock, co-founder of Mercury Group who advises on marine logistics and war-risk insurance. Anton Posner, co-founder of Mercury Group and dry-cargo logistics specialist. They discuss which non-oil goods flow through the Strait of Hormuz. They explain surging war-risk premiums and who ends up paying. They cover crew safety, rerouting options, and how trade routes and costs shift under maritime chaos.

Lloyd Blankfein, former chairman and CEO of Goldman Sachs and longtime Wall Street figure, reflects on markets, risk, and globalization. He discusses why he stepped back from tweeting, the mechanics of risk management at top banks, private credit illiquidity, tech and AI risks to finance, and how globalization has shifted recently.