Odd Lots

Joel Becker, METR researcher on AI evaluation, and Chris Painter, METR president focused on AI risk, unpack the viral chart tracking how long a task would take a human versus an AI. They get into why software work is the key signal, how human baselines and success thresholds are chosen, where autonomous systems still break down, and why fast capability gains are raising pressure on labs and investors.

James Bosworth, founder of Hxagon and a Latin America political risk analyst, maps the region’s orange shift. He gets into Trump-era dealmaking, Venezuela’s post-Maduro power structure, and why Sheinbaum and Bukele stay so popular. The conversation also hits Lula’s economic surprise, Milei’s fragile turnaround, Cuba’s possible next move, and China’s growing role.

Liz Reid, Google’s longtime search chief, talks about who controls online discovery as AI reshapes the web. She gets into AI overviews, shifting web traffic and ad economics, how people split between Search, AI Mode, and Gemini, why longer prompts change intent, and how search rankings battle spam and AI slop.

Daniel Yergin, S&P Global vice chairman and Pulitzer-winning energy historian, maps the fallout from the Hormuz crisis. He explores shifting global power, supply shock fears, and why drones changed the Strait’s strategic balance. The conversation also turns to AI’s huge electricity appetite, tech companies diving into power planning, and rising energy security risks worldwide.

Brad Jacobs, serial entrepreneur and prolific dealmaker behind QXO, talks through his $17 billion TopBuild buy. He gets into why insulation is a huge building-supplies play, how data centers are boosting demand, and what makes the market attractive even in a soft patch. He also touches on acquisition discipline, financing, tariffs, trucking, and how AI helps him run companies.

The White House wants gasoline prices to be lower, and it wants to see American oil companies drill for more oil. But of course, these ideas are in tension. If prices are going lower, why drill more? This tension has only grown sharper since the shale busts of the mid-2010s, as American producers got burned multiple times by prioritizing production over profits. So what now? How do US producers think about the recent oil price spike? How are they thinking about the rising costs of their own production, due to higher energy, labor, and steel costs? On this episode, we speak with Jack McClendon, the founder and CEO of Siena Natural Resources, an independent oil and gas company that primary buys odd lots of wells from other companies. We talk about the long-term economics of the industry, including the central role of capital markets in determining how the industry moves. He also tells us whether the show Landman is realistic. Read more:Oil Tankers Hauling US Crude Via Panama Approaching 4-Year HighThe US Oil Industry Doesn’t Want the Iran War Either Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Alex Imas, a University of Chicago economist studying decision-making and applied AI, explores why AI may not follow the usual technology script. The conversation covers labor market disruption, AI agents that can take actions, which white-collar and logistics roles look vulnerable, why demand matters for jobs, the breakneck pace of change, and even his grumpy “Marxist robots” experiment.

Mary Childs, finance journalist and Planet Money co-creator, joins Alex Mayyasi, economics reporter and longtime contributor. They tour the hidden economics behind everyday annoyances. Think raisin cartels, Cuties and branding, why childcare stays so expensive, how market rules shape capitalism, and why AI fears, pessimism, and progress can all coexist.

It's possible that the war in Iran could reshape financial flows in significant ways. Perhaps the Gulf states will end up as less desirable places to do business. Perhaps Iran will have a tollbooth at the Strait of Hormuz. Perhaps this episode will accelerate the world's shift away from oil. It's impossible to say. But given the uncertainty, fresh questions are being raised about the existing financial world order, upon the top of which the US dollar sits. On this episode, we speak once again with Brad Setser, the Whitney Shepardson senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. We discuss how the war is already creating new global imbalances, and the degree to which this episode parallels past energy shocks. We also talk about broader trends in reserve management, other factors driving financial flows, and the unique situation facing East Asia, which is seeing a surge in its energy import bills at the same time its making making a fortune selling chips for the AI boom. Read more:US Probes Suspicious Oil Trades Made Before Trump PivotsChina’s $51 Trillion Savings Help Bonds to Outperform During War Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Alex Turnbull, a Singapore-based investor and ANU energy researcher, maps how the Iran war is jolting East Asia first. He digs into Hormuz disruptions, LNG cargoes being pulled toward Asia, and why poorer importers feel the pain earliest. He also explores Japan and Korea’s nuclear restarts, surging EV demand, and how solar plus storage could chip away at gas dependence.