Odd Lots War in Iran Is Already Reshaping East Asia's Energy Future
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Apr 15, 2026 
Alex Turnbull, a Singapore-based investor and ANU energy researcher, maps how the Iran war is jolting East Asia first. He digs into Hormuz disruptions, LNG cargoes being pulled toward Asia, and why poorer importers feel the pain earliest. He also explores Japan and Korea’s nuclear restarts, surging EV demand, and how solar plus storage could chip away at gas dependence.
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Why Negative Refining Margins Do Not Stop Fuel Output
- Negative Asian refining margins do not automatically shut refineries because many governments cap fuel prices and some operators must keep running.
- Alex Turnbull says Chinese teapot refiners can be told to stay on, while market-pass-through countries like Australia instead see pump prices surge.
China Uses Regional Fuel Stress As Leverage
- China is not acting as a neutral stabilizer; it appears to restrict some oil-product exports while selectively helping neighbors.
- Alex Turnbull links that posture to South China Sea disputes with the Philippines and Vietnam, showing energy flows doubling as geopolitical leverage.
Energy Crisis Is Speeding Nuclear And EV Adoption
- The shock is accelerating nuclear restarts in Japan and Korea while also speeding EV adoption across Asia.
- Alex Turnbull says Japanese public polling now strongly backs nuclear, and BYD inventory days fell from 25-plus days in January to single digits.