The Cognitive Crucible

The Cognitive Crucible is a forum that presents different perspectives and emerging thought leadership related to the information environment. The opinions expressed by guests are their own, and do not necessarily reflect the views of or endorsement by the Information Professionals Association. During this episode, Doug Abdiel discusses the vivid operational problem of GPS-denied or GPS-degraded environments and how Advanced Navigation is helping operators cut through the fog of modern warfare. Recording Date: 16 Feb 2026 Research Question: Doug Abdiel suggests an interested student or researcher examine the computationally challenging problem of peer-to-peer solutions for signals. Resources: Cognitive Crucible Podcast Episodes Mentioned #237 Josh Segal on Ukraine, Electronic Warfare, and Fast Battlefield Innovation Advanced Navigation P&G Purpose: We believe that every person deserves a chance to obtain long-term, sustainable employment for themselves and their families. For some people, this has never been a problem. For others, through circumstances outside of their control, be it war, famine, or countless other issues, they have never been able to have this sustainable employment. We aim to bridge that gap, helping those people obtain the job skills that they need to succeed. Global Navigation Satellite Systems, Inertial Navigation, and Integration by Mohinder S. Grewal, Angus P. Andrews, and Chris G. Bartone Battlefield Cellphone Usage Cigarette Lighter Airport Jammer Link to full show notes and resources Guest Bio: Doug Abdiel is Global VP Customer Experience and Support at Advanced Navigation, a global leader in autonomous systems and navigation technology. In addition to being a Navigator, Doug is a U.S. Marine, and has served on active duty and in the reserves, where he is currently a Lieutenant Colonel, since 2003. Doug is an experienced leader with a record of driving change in the internet, defence, and social sectors for the past two decades. He has practiced in competitive intelligence, strategic/operational planning, and partnership business development across the Asia-Pacific. Doug is recognized for high-double-digit YoY growth and concurrent cost reduction on eleven-figure P&Ls. He is a community-minded founder, director, and chair of a multimillion-dollar social enterprise that provided over 50 people their first, and most importantly a pathway to their second, jobs in Australia. Doug's opinions are his own and do not necessarily reflect the views of the US Department of War, Department of the Navy, or the US Marine Corps. About: The Information Professionals Association (IPA) is a non-profit organization dedicated to exploring the role of information activities, such as influence and cognitive security, within the national security sector and helping to bridge the divide between operations and research. Its goal is to increase interdisciplinary collaboration between scholars and practitioners and policymakers with an interest in this domain. For more information, please contact us at communications@information-professionals.org. Or, connect directly with The Cognitive Crucible podcast host, John Bicknell, on LinkedIn. Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate, 1) IPA earns from qualifying purchases, 2) IPA gets commissions for purchases made through links in this post.

Dr. Andrew Whiskeyman, retired U.S. Army colonel and CEO of JASSA Professional Services, is a lecturer and researcher in information warfare and cognitive security. He outlines the case for Cognitive Intelligence as a distinct discipline. Conversations cover mapping and protecting decision-making architectures, how tech and data enable precision influence, and the policy and institutional changes needed to respond.

The Cognitive Crucible is a forum that presents different perspectives and emerging thought leadership related to the information environment. The opinions expressed by guests are their own, and do not necessarily reflect the views of or endorsement by the Information Professionals Association. During this episode, Sean Guillory discusses the rapid ascent of prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi which are transforming global events into tradable assets. Recording Date: 23 Feb 2026 Research Question: Sean Guillory suggests an interested student or researcher examine: How appropriators fund research in this space Study feedback loops Incentive-based forecasting Political promises market Betting Reviewed vs. Peer Reviewed science Resources: Cognitive Crucible Podcast Episodes Mentioned #65 Sean Guillory on Cognitive Neuroscience Applications BetBreakingNews Website BetBreakingNews substack Proposal: Betting Reviewed vs. Peer Reviewed Link to full show notes and resources Guest Bio: Dr. Sean Guillory is a nationally recognized expert in cognitive warfare, influence operations, and behavioral strategy. With over a decade of experience supporting U.S. defense and intelligence agencies, Sean specializes in understanding and shaping human decision-making at scale within the world's most contested information environments. A Dartmouth-trained Ph.D. cognitive neuroscientist, Sean pioneers cutting-edge tools for non-kinetic warfare at the volatile intersection of neuroscience, psychology, and national defense. His career has evolved from mapping brain functions in neurosurgery patients to prototyping behavioral tools for federal agencies. Today, he advises clients on how prediction markets are reshaping geopolitical security and how to navigate the emerging risks in these digital environments. Sean is the Co-founder and CEO of BetBreakingNews, which leverages prediction market intelligence to drive actionable decisions for corporate and national security clients. He is also the co-host of the MAD Warfare podcast, where he explores the nuances of unconventional conflict. Additionally, Sean serves on the boards of the Information Professionals Association and the Mind Science Foundation's Science Committee, fostering the research and practical applications necessary to protect the modern cognitive landscape. About: The Information Professionals Association (IPA) is a non-profit organization dedicated to exploring the role of information activities, such as influence and cognitive security, within the national security sector and helping to bridge the divide between operations and research. Its goal is to increase interdisciplinary collaboration between scholars and practitioners and policymakers with an interest in this domain. For more information, please contact us at communications@information-professionals.org. Or, connect directly with The Cognitive Crucible podcast host, John Bicknell, on LinkedIn. Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate, 1) IPA earns from qualifying purchases, 2) IPA gets commissions for purchases made through links in this post.

The Cognitive Crucible is a forum that presents different perspectives and emerging thought leadership related to the information environment. The opinions expressed by guests are their own, and do not necessarily reflect the views of or endorsement by the Information Professionals Association. During this episode, Doug Wilbur discussed propaganda, information warfare, and strategic optimism–emphasizing society's capability for problem-solving. He defined propaganda as any communication intended to influence behavior in the propagandist's favor, distinguishing it from persuasion. Wilbur concluded the Vietnamese were the most successful propagandists, effectively delegitimizing the South Vietnamese government as a US puppet, which made the 1968 Tet Offensive a psychological victory despite military defeat. He explained that communism relies on a messianic eschatology, promising a utopian future. Wilbur also addressed modern threats, noting that AI increases the vulnerability of open societies to personalized disinformation, compounding the challenge of combating propaganda due to people relying on fast-thinking heuristics. Recording Date: 6 Feb 2026 Research Question: Doug Wilbur suggests an interested student or researcher examine what are the Chinese telling external audiences and what effect is it having? Resources: Blurring the Source: Information Laundering and the Cognitive Architecture of Modern Propaganda by Doug Wilbur Finding the Signal within the Noise: What Information Warriors Need to Know About Human Pattern Recognitionby Doug Wilbur Warfare of Position: When the Decisive Struggle Precedes the First Shot by Doug Wilbur Viet Cong: The Organization of the National Liberation Front of South Vietnam by Douglas Pike Link to full show notes and resources Guest Bio: Douglas S Wilbur, Ph.D. (University of Missouri, School of Journalism, 2019), is a communication scientist who specializes in propaganda, information warfare and strategic communication. He is also a retired U.S. Army Information Operations Officer with four deployments. He works full-time in the information technology industry but is an adjunct professor of Marketing at the University of Maryland Global Campus. About: The Information Professionals Association (IPA) is a non-profit organization dedicated to exploring the role of information activities, such as influence and cognitive security, within the national security sector and helping to bridge the divide between operations and research. Its goal is to increase interdisciplinary collaboration between scholars and practitioners and policymakers with an interest in this domain. For more information, please contact us at communications@information-professionals.org. Or, connect directly with The Cognitive Crucible podcast host, John Bicknell, on LinkedIn. Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate, 1) IPA earns from qualifying purchases, 2) IPA gets commissions for purchases made through links in this post.

In this engaging discussion, Anthony Vinci, a former intelligence leader and author of The Fourth Intelligence Revolution, reveals the stark shift in warfare from physical battlefields to the human mind. He tackles China's influence through education and gaming, warns about TikTok's data collection, and highlights how social media subtly manipulates perceptions. Vinci also discusses the crisis of masculinity and urges resilience against surveillance and misinformation, offering strategies for individuals to bolster their cognitive defenses.

The Cognitive Crucible is a forum that presents different perspectives and emerging thought leadership related to the information environment. The opinions expressed by guests are their own, and do not necessarily reflect the views of or endorsement by the Information Professionals Association. John Boyd is well known to have formally written down very little of his own theories on war and conflict, making researching his concepts challenging and leading many to infer meanings based on their own interpretations—or others'—of what little easily accessible evidence of his thinking remains. In Snowmobiles and Grand Ideals, Ian Brown unpacks Boyd in his own words delivered during his lectures. Recording Date: 9 Dec 2025 Resources: Cognitive Crucible Podcast Episodes Mentioned #146 Sebastian Bae on Gaming Snowmobiles and Grand Ideals: John Boyd's Vision for Thriving in Chaos by Ian T. Brown and Frans P. B. Osinga A New Conception of War by Ian T. Brown YouTube: Steve Jobs Introducing The iPhone At MacWorld 2007 Destruction and Creation by John Boyd (1976) Link to full show notes and resources Guest Bio: Ian Brown is a retired Marine Corps CH-53E Super Stallion helicopter pilot with multiple deployments to Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Pacific region. He has written dozens of articles, reviews, and short stories for a variety of defense-related publications, covering topics of military history, military theory, future war, and wargaming. His book A New Conception of War: John Boyd, the U.S. Marines, and Maneuver Warfare (Marine Corps University Press, 2018) was added to the Commandant of the Marine Corps' Professional Reading Program in 2019. He currently works as a wargame analyst for Group W and has designed several wargames independently. About: The Information Professionals Association (IPA) is a non-profit organization dedicated to exploring the role of information activities, such as influence and cognitive security, within the national security sector and helping to bridge the divide between operations and research. Its goal is to increase interdisciplinary collaboration between scholars and practitioners and policymakers with an interest in this domain. For more information, please contact us at communications@information-professionals.org. Or, connect directly with The Cognitive Crucible podcast host, John Bicknell, on LinkedIn. Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate, 1) IPA earns from qualifying purchases, 2) IPA gets commissions for purchases made through links in this post.

In this conversation, Bill Wall, CEO of Accrete AI and former Special Forces Colonel, delves into the critical intersection of AI and information operations. He highlights the U.S.'s need to rebalance military might with effective information strategies and understanding local populations in modern conflicts. Wall also discusses Accrete AI's ability to analyze vast data for critical insights. He emphasizes the importance of tailoring narratives for social media and the risks of falling behind in influence operations, advocating for a renewed focus on soft power in the digital age.

The Cognitive Crucible is a forum that presents different perspectives and emerging thought leadership related to the information environment. The opinions expressed by guests are their own, and do not necessarily reflect the views of or endorsement by the Information Professionals Association. During this episode, Dr. Josh "Bugsy" Segal recaps his recent observations from the Ukraine battlefield and concerns for Western governments which don't adapt quickly. Ukraine's rapid development of sophisticated, cost-effective domestic defense technology, including advanced counter-drone systems, is positioning the nation as a key arms supplier of the future. This innovation highlights a critical national security concern for the U.S., as expensive Western weapons have proven ineffective against Russian countermeasures, and the American defense industry is failing to incorporate vital battlefield insights. To maintain its global defense sector dominance, the U.S. must accept its current competitive disadvantage and immediately prioritize collaboration with Ukraine to integrate its effective, relevant technology. Recording Date: 12 Dec 2025 Resources: Cognitive Crucible Podcast Episodes Mentioned #192 Josh "Bugsy" Segal on the American Maginot Line #219 Dr. Josh Segal on Are We Losing the War? Lethality, Deterrence, and Information Ukraine offers a roadmap for faster and cheaper battlefield innovation by Josh Segal Defense in depth Brave 1 Ukrainian Defense Innovation Fire Point Weapons Systems Link to full show notes and resources Guest Bio: Josh Segal holds a Ph.D. in Russian Studies from George Washington University and an MA in Russian Studies from Emory University and graduated Summa Cum Laude from Emory. He is a former negotiator on Chemical Weapons Convention and helped establish the OPCW, and other treaties in the 1990s, became active duty Navy Info warfare and intel officer and served 27 years, finishing as Director of the Information Warfare Program and finally at US Special Operations Command. Current;y, he is a senior advisor to a number of Department of War leaders across Policy and the Services, recently returned from 11 speaking engagements in Europe and North America on Hybrid Warfare. About: The Information Professionals Association (IPA) is a non-profit organization dedicated to exploring the role of information activities, such as influence and cognitive security, within the national security sector and helping to bridge the divide between operations and research. Its goal is to increase interdisciplinary collaboration between scholars and practitioners and policymakers with an interest in this domain. For more information, please contact us at communications@information-professionals.org. Or, connect directly with The Cognitive Crucible podcast host, John Bicknell, on LinkedIn. Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate, 1) IPA earns from qualifying purchases, 2) IPA gets commissions for purchases made through links in this post.

Michael Lissack, founder of the Second Order Science Foundation and a cybernetics expert, dives into anticipatory agents and their role in understanding complex systems. He explores the intersection of Quantum Bayesianism and anticipatory systems, shedding light on how we interpret meaning in an overwhelming information landscape. Lissack distinguishes between human cognitive limits and large language models, emphasizing the value of dialogue with these agents. He critiques conventional approaches, advocating for a philosophical, process-driven framework to navigate uncertainty.

Colonel Robert M. Thelen, a senior U.S. Army officer with extensive experience in information operations, sheds light on the Army's new Information Warfare Branch. He discusses the U.S. lagging behind adversaries like China and Russia in information funding and highlights the need to overcome existing silos in U.S. operations. Thelen also explores the evolving role of public affairs in military planning, the impact of the Global Engagement Center, and the future tactical responsibilities of the IWAR branch in countering misinformation.