The Cognitive Crucible #244 Sean Guillory on Betting Intelligence and National Security
The Cognitive Crucible is a forum that presents different perspectives and emerging thought leadership related to the information environment. The opinions expressed by guests are their own, and do not necessarily reflect the views of or endorsement by the Information Professionals Association.
During this episode, Sean Guillory discusses the rapid ascent of prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi which are transforming global events into tradable assets.
Recording Date: 23 Feb 2026
Research Question: Sean Guillory suggests an interested student or researcher examine:
- How appropriators fund research in this space
- Study feedback loops
- Incentive-based forecasting
- Political promises market
- Betting Reviewed vs. Peer Reviewed science
Resources:
- Cognitive Crucible Podcast Episodes Mentioned
- BetBreakingNews Website
- BetBreakingNews substack
- Proposal: Betting Reviewed vs. Peer Reviewed
Link to full show notes and resources
Guest Bio: Dr. Sean Guillory is a nationally recognized expert in cognitive warfare, influence operations, and behavioral strategy. With over a decade of experience supporting U.S. defense and intelligence agencies, Sean specializes in understanding and shaping human decision-making at scale within the world's most contested information environments.
A Dartmouth-trained Ph.D. cognitive neuroscientist, Sean pioneers cutting-edge tools for non-kinetic warfare at the volatile intersection of neuroscience, psychology, and national defense. His career has evolved from mapping brain functions in neurosurgery patients to prototyping behavioral tools for federal agencies. Today, he advises clients on how prediction markets are reshaping geopolitical security and how to navigate the emerging risks in these digital environments.
Sean is the Co-founder and CEO of BetBreakingNews, which leverages prediction market intelligence to drive actionable decisions for corporate and national security clients. He is also the co-host of the MAD Warfare podcast, where he explores the nuances of unconventional conflict. Additionally, Sean serves on the boards of the Information Professionals Association and the Mind Science Foundation's Science Committee, fostering the research and practical applications necessary to protect the modern cognitive landscape.
About: The Information Professionals Association (IPA) is a non-profit organization dedicated to exploring the role of information activities, such as influence and cognitive security, within the national security sector and helping to bridge the divide between operations and research. Its goal is to increase interdisciplinary collaboration between scholars and practitioners and policymakers with an interest in this domain.
For more information, please contact us at communications@information-professionals.org.
Or, connect directly with The Cognitive Crucible podcast host, John Bicknell, on LinkedIn.
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