Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes

Jim O’Brien, former U.S. assistant secretary of state and transatlantic policy expert, and Tiago Antunes, former Portuguese secretary of state with firsthand reporting from Nuuk. They trace the Greenland crisis: how tensions rose and were diffused, why visible deterrence and European unity mattered, Greenlanders’ reactions on the ground, and the island’s economic and political prospects.

Lea Ypi, LSE professor of political theory and award-winning author, reflects on dignity, history and political ideas. She mixes family memoir and archival research to trace humiliation and moral agency across 20th-century Europe. Conversations probe parallels between past totalitarianism and today’s polarised politics. The discussion considers how Enlightenment critique might counter rising nationalism and erosion of shared truth.

Alex Vines, ECFR Africa director, explains shifting geopolitics and development corridors. Carlos Lopes, former UN/AU official and academic, highlights industrialisation and regional strategy. Nathalie Delapalme, Mo Ibrahim Foundation CEO, focuses on governance, energy access and local value addition. They discuss Europe-Africa climate and minerals policy, China’s presence, CBAM risks, and how partnerships should evolve.

James Crabtree, ECFR distinguished visiting fellow and former Financial Times Mumbai bureau chief, offers expert analysis on the landmark EU-India mega-deal. He discusses the deal’s geopolitical weight and rapid diplomatic breakthrough. He outlines trade coverage and notable exclusions. He examines tech and defence links, India’s ties with Russia, and political risks to ratification.

Alexander Stubb, a seasoned Finnish politician and academic, shares insights from the World Economic Forum in Davos. He discusses the evolving geopolitical landscape, emphasizing a historic pivot akin to 1918. The conversation explores Finland's diplomatic focus on Ukraine amid concerns over Greenland. Stubb presents three potential solutions for Ukraine's conflict and reflects on personal diplomacy's importance, including casual moments with leaders. With his expertise on transatlantic relations, Stubb urges engagement and values-based realism in foreign policy.

Ellie Geranmayeh, the deputy director of ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme, shares her insights on the ongoing protests in Iran and the implications of potential U.S. military intervention. She discusses the harsh crackdown of the Iranian regime, the challenges in verifying events on the ground, and why Trump's mixed signals create uncertainty. Geranmayeh also considers Reza Pahlavi's rising profile in opposition and explores alternatives to military action, emphasizing diplomacy and internal dynamics in shaping Iran's future.

Julien Barnes-Dacey, Alex Vines, Andrew Small, and Jana Kobzová bring their expertise to discuss Europe's looming challenges in 2026. They explore the prospects of a ceasefire in Ukraine and the impact of Iran's protests on regional stability. The conversation shifts to Africa's complex security landscape, highlighting critical conflicts and economic struggles. Lastly, they delve into China's growing influence and the geopolitical tensions surrounding it, forecasting a year of relative calm—but cautioning about potential flashpoints ahead.

In this discussion, Jeremy Shapiro, Research Director at the European Council on Foreign Relations, and José Ignacio Torreblanca, a Distinguished Policy Fellow, dive into the U.S. military's dramatic capture of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela. They explore Trump's motivations and the implications of U.S. control over Venezuela’s oil reserves. The conversation shifts to U.S. foreign policy, the role of factional politics in Trump’s decision-making, and potential ramifications for regions like Greenland, questioning whether military force will shape future American engagement across the Americas.

In a lively discussion, Jeremy Shapiro, the research director at the European Council on Foreign Relations, joins to assess past predictions and forecast a turbulent 2026. They examine Trump’s impactful return to politics and its chaos. Key highlights include predictions about the rise of the European far right and the potential for an uneasy ceasefire in Ukraine. Shapiro also anticipates a new US-Iran deal resembling the JCPOA and warns of growing sovereign debt issues in the global south. Tune in for a deep dive into 2026's geopolitical landscape!

Join Tobias Gehrke, a senior policy fellow specializing in economic security, and Andrew Small, director of ECFR's Asia programme, as they navigate Europe's challenges posed by China's tightening export controls. They discuss the significant risks for European industries and analyze how China gathers intelligence to enhance its coercive capabilities. The duo explores Europe’s competitive landscape against China, potential partnerships for alternative supply chains, and strategies to mitigate economic coercion amidst political divisions.