Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes The world in 2026
Jan 9, 2026
Julien Barnes-Dacey, Alex Vines, Andrew Small, and Jana Kobzová bring their expertise to discuss Europe's looming challenges in 2026. They explore the prospects of a ceasefire in Ukraine and the impact of Iran's protests on regional stability. The conversation shifts to Africa's complex security landscape, highlighting critical conflicts and economic struggles. Lastly, they delve into China's growing influence and the geopolitical tensions surrounding it, forecasting a year of relative calm—but cautioning about potential flashpoints ahead.
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Watch Iran's Protests For Regional Spillovers
- Monitor Iran's protests for risks of violent escalation and external meddling.
- Julien Barnes-Dacey urges preparedness for regional fallout including nuclear diplomacy and security shocks.
Africa: High Growth Amid Persistent Conflicts
- Africa's economy may grow over 6% in 2026 while conflicts persist across multiple countries.
- Alex Vines notes mining and oil drive growth even as Sudan, DRC, and the Horn remain unstable.
Debt Crushes African Policy Space
- Debt servicing will heavily constrain African governments in 2026, diverting funds from public services.
- Alex Vines warns countries will spend large shares of budgets on creditor payments instead of development.
