One Decision

Brian Latell, a 35-year CIA veteran and Cuba analyst turned academic, breaks down Havana's crisis. He discusses the fuel embargo’s pressure, risks of squeezing Cuba too hard, who actually holds power in Havana, and how a transition might unfold. Short, sharp takes on intelligence, diaspora roles in rebuilding, and the political forces shaping what comes next.

A deep dive into Trump's sudden pause in strikes on Iran and whether it was a diplomatic move or a strategic calculation to calm global oil markets. Discussion of how actions in the Strait of Hormuz spiked prices and pressured policy. Exploration of secret backchannels, the idea of escalating to de-escalate, and growing strategic tensions between US and Israeli aims.

Helima Croft, RBC Capital Markets strategist and former CIA economic analyst, breaks down the Strait of Hormuz crisis. She explains why this oil shutdown outstrips 1970s shocks. She outlines technical shut-in mechanics, the limits of stockpiles, alternative routes at risk, and how Russia and regional actors could reshape global flows.

A sharp discussion about whether Western unity is fraying over calls for naval action in the Strait of Hormuz. They explore Iran’s media and proxy tactics and the risk of terror threats in Europe. Political polarization and the role of Kharg Island in global oil markets also get center stage.

Ronan Bergman, investigative journalist on military and intelligence affairs, and Jonathan Conricus, retired IDF lieutenant colonel turned strategic analyst, discuss Israel’s military aims, the timing behind joint strikes with the U.S., risks around Iran’s high‑enriched uranium, leadership decapitation, naval pressure in the Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf states’ quiet positions. Multiple short, focused takes on strategy and regional dynamics.

Jim Himes, Democratic U.S. Representative from Connecticut and Intelligence Committee ranking member, shares his inside perspective. He discusses limited pre-strike briefings, the shaky legal rationale for the Iran strike, and why the conflict may push Iran toward a bomb. He also explores GOP loyalty to Trump, geopolitical winners like China and Russia, and the prospect of a face-saving Trump declaration of victory.

Sir Ben Wallace, former UK Defence Secretary and long-time chair of the British–Iran Parliamentary Group, offers a regional security perspective. He discusses Mojtaba Khamenei’s succession and the IRGC’s hold on power. Short takes cover Gulf states’ economic and political anxieties, drone escalation risks, and the wider energy and European security fallout.

Trita Parsi, co-founder of the Quincy Institute and expert on US–Iran relations, explains Iran’s existential strategy and succession safeguards. He discusses IRGC versus regular army dynamics. He outlines Iran’s plan to raise costs regionally, Gulf states’ security shifts, MAGA backlash to the war, and why a face-saving US exit is likely.

John Bolton, former U.S. National Security Advisor and hardline foreign-policy advocate, warns Iran could fragment and outlines regional ripple effects. Mark Hertling, retired U.S. Army lieutenant general with Iraq operational experience, stresses post-strike planning and lessons from disbanding armies. They debate power vacuums, Gulf states' moves, Iran retaliation, and wider impacts on Russia, China, energy and alliances.

Sir Richard Dearlove, former head of MI6 and senior intelligence figure, offers strategic analysis of the strike that killed Ayatollah Khamenei. He discusses regional fallout, martyrdom and succession, the weakened state of Iran’s proxies, China and Russia’s calculations, and how US and Israeli intelligence capabilities made the operation possible.