One Decision The Largest Oil Supply Shock in History: Inside the Strait of Hormuz Crisis | Helima Croft
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Mar 19, 2026 Helima Croft, RBC Capital Markets strategist and former CIA economic analyst, breaks down the Strait of Hormuz crisis. She explains why this oil shutdown outstrips 1970s shocks. She outlines technical shut-in mechanics, the limits of stockpiles, alternative routes at risk, and how Russia and regional actors could reshape global flows.
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IEA Release Faces Real Physical Shortfall
- The IEA stock release is aimed at filling a real physical shortfall, not merely calming markets as in Russia-Ukraine.
- Releases take time to reach market and are limited if the outage persists into summer, leaving thinner SPR buffers.
No Fast Offset For Qatari LNG Losses
- There is effectively no alternative for Qatari LNG if the Strait is closed; gas markets cannot be quickly substituted.
- Asia and developing countries will feel gas shortages first, with Europe also impacted after foregoing Russian supplies.
Russia Emerges As Big Winner
- Russia is the primary geopolitical winner as U.S. sanctions ease and Russian barrels flow to India and China sanction-free.
- Floating Russian storage built earlier will now move to sanction-free buyers like Reliance and Chinese refiners.