Podcast Archives - Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

In this latest OIES podcast, from the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Bill Farren-Price, Mike Fulwood and Jack Sharples about the current state of the global gas market given the continuing war in Iran. They discuss the impact of the cessation of LNG flows from Qatar and the UAE, including a review of the main demand centres that have been affected and the ongoing volatility of prices. They then review three scenarios for the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz, analysing the potential for LNG flows in the short-, medium- and longer term and the consequent supply and price impacts. Finally, the podcast considers the risks to the refill of storage in Europe over the summer, the potential new shape of the LNG wave that could replace exports from the Gulf and the risk that the current crisis could fundamentally change the perceptions of the future of gas in importing regions. The post OIES Podcast – The Current State of the Global Gas Market appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

In this latest OIES podcast from the Electricity Programme, Dimitra Apostolopoulou talks to Senior Research Fellow David Robinson about why demand-side flexibility has shifted from a niche concept to a structural pillar of deeply decarbonised systems.  We explore how smart electric-vehicle charging, heat pumps, household batteries, and digital platforms are reshaping the balance between supply and demand; why aggregation is essential for small assets to compete with conventional generation; and how electricity markets may evolve as flexibility increasingly sets the margin. The discussion highlights the critical distinction between implicit price responses and explicit market participation, noting that automation is key to consumer engagement. The conversation also examines grid congestion, AI-driven optimisation, and regulatory debates on independent aggregators and compensation models worldwide. Ultimately, we argue that integrating flexible demand is essential for decarbonisation and reducing long-term infrastructure costs. The post OIES Podcast – Demand-side flexibility: state of play and future trends appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

Mike Fullwood, Senior Research Fellow at OIES focused on LNG and market modelling, and Bill Farren-Price, head of gas research specialising in Middle East gas and geopolitical risk, discuss the Gulf conflict’s damage to LNG infrastructure and immediate lost supply. They cover price shocks, possible alternative supplies and spare capacity, EU policy choices, Russia-China gas dynamics, and whether repeated shocks could change gas demand patterns.

The US and Israeli attack on Iran coincided with what was already an eventful week in China, especially with the conclusion of the Two-Sessions of the National People’s Congress and the publication of the draft 15th Five-Year Plan (15FYP) Outline. In today’s podcast, Michal Meidan and Anders Hove dig into the implications of the new energy crisis for China, as well as what China’s electrification of transport really means for energy security. China is the world’s largest oil importing country, and it gets a large share of its oil from the Middle East. The Strait of Hormuz has been a potential energy choke-point for China for decades. But this doesn’t make China inherently the most vulnerable country to oil disruptions – though gasoline prices have spiked and gas lines have been reported. New Energy Vehicle (NEV) adoption is an ongoing trend, but the picture is complicated here as well. Even though NEVs are over 50% of the new vehicle market, they constitute only 12% of the vehicle stock. In fact, China’s freight sector is seeing a faster transition to electrification. China is far less reliant on cars for personal transportation than other large economies, which also reduces its vulnerability. Chinese policy makers are clearly focused on economics and energy security over climate and clean energy – that has been clear for several years. The FYP makes some nods towards electrification of trucking and transportation, but not breaking new ground. The document supports an all-of-the-above strategy, as well as providing something for everyone – especially coal-to-gas and coal-to-chemicals, which have implications for local development as well as energy security. Today’s podcast builds on two OIES papers, ‘Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz: Implications for China’s energy markets and policies’, published earlier this week, and a paper on China’s NEV developments to be released shortly. The post OIES Podcast – China, Iran and the Five-Year Plan appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

In this podcast, Bassam Fattouh talks to Paul Horsnell and Ahmed Mehdi about the US-Israel War with Iran and its implications for oil markets. They discuss a number of topics: Are markets still in the phase of ‘logistical discovery’, identifying weak points in the global oil supply chain, and what disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz reveal about system resilience? If shipping through Hormuz remains disrupted, how the oil market adjusts across production, transportation, consumption, and inventories/buffers?  What changes in crude differentials, refining margins, product prices, freight rates, and trading structures reveal about current transformations in oil markets and are these transformations structural? How Asian refineries dependent on Gulf crude are adapting to the shock? Are supply shortages accelerating the reintegration of Russian and Venezuelan crude into global markets and what this means for trade flows and pricing? How are pricing mechanisms and the price discovery process being affected? The post OIES Podcast – The US-Israeli War with Iran: Continuing Impacts on Oil Markets appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

In this podcast, Bassam Fattouh talks to Michal Meidan, Bill Farren Price and Paul Horsnell about the US-Israel War with Iran and its implications for oil and gas markets. They discuss a number of topics: How is the war reshaping global energy markets and energy security? What are the main warring parties seeking to achieve? What have been the implications for oil markets? What are the key risks to watch out for? How will current events change the ‘glut’ narrative? Why have European gas prices surged even more dramatically than oil and what does this reveal about LNG and gas market vulnerability? Will President Donald Trump’s proposal to insure and escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz meaningfully reduce market fears, or are traders still pricing in further escalation risks? How will China respond? Will it do strategic crude stock releases? How will crude and LNG sourcing shift? What is the outlook for potential diplomatic intervention, if the conflict persists or escalates further? The post OIES Podcast – US-Israeli War with Iran: Unpacking the oil and gas market implications appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

In this latest episode of the OIES podcast series, Bassam Fattouh (Director of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies) discusses with Ilia Bouchouev (managing partner at Pentathlon Investments, Senior Research Fellow at OIES, and adjunct Professor at New York University) recent trends in options trading, algorithmic trading and hedge fund strategies that are shaping oil markets. Based on recent research from the OIES Energy Quantamentals series, they focus on key themes including: The role of fundamentals versus financial flows in oil price formation Volatility risk premiums and the shrinking supply of insurance and the implications for oil markets Whether the elevated option premiums represent excess profits for sellers or fair compensation for bearing tail risks, and whether option sellers amplify or dampen sharp price movements during market stress Competing algorithmic strategies and how these have been evolving in a price range bound environment How spikes in call option open interest during geopolitical tensions may influence algorithmic positioning, and how options markets, volatility premiums, and systematic strategies interact to drive price moves Comparison of momentum-based strategies that reinforce large fund positioning versus contrarian strategies that bet on mean reversion, and analysis of why contrarian strategies have recently outperformed The Impact of AI on oil trading and market volatility Key indicators and positioning trends to monitor in 2026 for understanding the influence of algorithmic strategies and hedge fund flows on oil prices The post OIES Podcast – Algorithmic Oil Traders, Hedge Fund Strategies and Oil Markets appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

In this latest OIES podcast, brought to you by the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Jack Sharples and Mike Fulwood about the impact of the recent cold weather on gas markets and the outlook for the rest of 2026. We start with a review of prices over the past couple of months and a look at the key drivers behind the price spike in January. In considering how the surge in European demand was met we look at the key sources of supply, with a focus on the LNG market. This then leads to a discussion about the new sources of LNG supply that are set to become available over the next twelve months and what this might mean for the European gas market as it seeks to refill storage that has been heavily depleted over the past 3-4 months. We consider what the impact of Asian demand could be on the availability of supply to Europe, consider the main market risks over the next 12 months and conclude with some thoughts on the price outlook through the remainder of 2026 and into the first quarter of 2027. The post OIES Podcast – Gas Market Outlook appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

China successfully navigated a difficult year in 2025, just hitting its official growth target despite trade wars and the country’s ongoing real estate slowdown. The country’s leadership is deep in the process of developing its next five-year plan, which is expected to focus on high technology and industrial upgrading, continuing recent policy themes rather than introducing major structural reforms. Meanwhile, policy makers are seeking to combat involution while boosting exports to ensure that the ‘New Three’ industries (solar, batteries, electric vehicles) remain a growth driver. All while maintaining energy security in the face of rising renewables and the risks of external conflicts. In this podcast, Michal Meidan and Anders Hove discuss the latest developments in China’s energy picture, including markets, policy and geopolitics. Key topics include the impact of Venezuela on China’s oil sector, the need for power market reforms to combat overcapacity in coal, the implications of rising renewables and coal on gas-fired power, and the rise of EV heavy trucks and whether they pose a threat for future LNG use in transport. Most importantly, they address the key things to watch in the coming 15th Five-Year Plan. The post OIES Podcast – China 2026 Outlook: Staying the course in turbulent times appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

In this latest OIES podcast, from the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Katja Yafimava about her recent paper on the updated EU regulation covering gas storage. Over the course of 2022 the EU adopted a significant amount of ‘emergency’ legislation to address the consequences of the energy crisis, and a major plank of it was the Gas Storage Regulation which obliged Member States to fill their storage to at least 90 per cent of capacity by 1 November. However, as the crisis has eased the relevance of this rule has been questioned and it has even been accused of distorting the gas market. The regulation expired at the end of 2025, and an EC proposal to extend it to 2027 was met with significant opposition from several Member States and market players due to concerns that the preservation of both final and intermediary targets for filling storage would result in higher gas prices. As a result, both the European Council and the Parliament made significant changes to the proposal. This podcast  provides an overview of the key provisions of the original Storage Regulation, the EC recommendation and a proposal for an extension, the Council and the Parliament positions, as well as the revised Regulation, with a view to determining the revised Regulation’s storage filling obligations and their impact on market functioning during 2025-27 and the role of the revised Regulation in shaping the ongoing revision process of the EU security of supply framework. The post OIES Podcast – EU Gas Storage Regulation – from Crisis to Flexibility appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.