OIES Podcast – China 2026 Outlook: Staying the course in turbulent times

China successfully navigated a difficult year in 2025, just hitting its official growth target despite trade wars and the country’s ongoing real estate slowdown. The country’s leadership is deep in the process of developing its next five-year plan, which is expected to focus on high technology and industrial upgrading, continuing recent policy themes rather than introducing major structural reforms. Meanwhile, policy makers are seeking to combat involution while boosting exports to ensure that the ‘New Three’ industries (solar, batteries, electric vehicles) remain a growth driver. All while maintaining energy security in the face of rising renewables and the risks of external conflicts. In this podcast, Michal Meidan and Anders Hove discuss the latest developments in China’s energy picture, including markets, policy and geopolitics. Key topics include the impact of Venezuela on China’s oil sector, the need for power market reforms to combat overcapacity in coal, the implications of rising renewables and coal on gas-fired power, and the rise of EV heavy trucks and whether they pose a threat for future LNG use in transport. Most importantly, they address the key things to watch in the coming 15th Five-Year Plan.

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