The NZ Property Market Podcast

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson break down the Q1 2026 Cordell Construction Cost Index (CCCI). While cost growth remains relatively controlled at 1% for the quarter, building costs are now 30% higher than they were in March 2020. We discuss why this controlled growth might be short-lived as global supply chain disruptions and transport cost hikes begin to flow through the industry.We also analyse the latest RBNZ mortgage lending data, which reveals a massive shift in borrower behaviour. As the market prices in potential OCR hikes, New Zealanders are rapidly moving away from floating and short-term fixes in favour of two and three-year terms.This week, we discuss:CCCI results: Cost growth accelerated slightly to 1% in Q1 (3% annually), but remains below the long-term average of 4%.The level vs growth gap: Why build costs feel expensive despite lower inflation rates - levels are now 30% higher than pre- oandemic. Construction industry health: Dwelling consents have risen to an annual total of ~37,500, signalling a robust recovery despite regional differences.Mortgage lending trends: 55% of new lending is now fixed for longer than 12 months, with the two-year rate becoming the most popular choice at 31%.The OCR outlook: Why the market expects the RBNZ to act sooner than previously thought to combat "second round" inflation risks.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.comThis podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The RBNZ keeps the OCR at 2.25%, but with inflation forecasts shifting to 4.2% for June, the wait and see period has a very clear focus on rising costs.In this special reactionary episode, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson break down today’s Reserve Bank (RBNZ) Monetary Policy Review. While the decision to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 2.25% was widely expected, the focus has shifted to the Bank's updated inflation outlook and the impact of the newly announced two-week ceasefire in Iran.We discuss how the RBNZ is balancing the risk of a stuttering economy against the potential for rising wages and transport costs to keep inflation higher for longer. With the June quarter inflation forecast now sitting at 4.2%, we look at what this means for the timing of any future moves and the immediate outlook for mortgage holders.This week, we discuss:The OCR decision: Why the 2.25% hold was the only move for today.Ready to move: The RBNZ’s signal that they won't hesitate to act if they see price increases becoming embedded.Revised inflation forecasts: Breaking down the shift from 2.7% to 4.2% for the June quarter.Interest rate strategy: Why the bottom for mortgage rates is likely behind us and what to consider when your fix comes up.The election year factor: Could the Government step in with fiscal support if the economy enters another recession?Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.comThis podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!March data confirms a property market upturn was underway - but global second-round inflation risks may have just drawn a line in the sand.In this episode, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson break down the March Home Value Index, which saw a second consecutive 0.2% rise in national property values. While momentum was clearly building in Christchurch, Dunedin, and Invercargill through the first quarter, the escalating conflict in the Middle East has shifted the narrative toward cautionary gaps and a potential reversal of these gains.We also preview tomorrow’s RBNZ Monetary Policy Review. With business and consumer confidence plummeting, will the Reserve Bank stay focused solely on sticky inflation, or will the growing risk of a real economy recession force a change in tone?This week we discuss:The March HVI: Why Christchurch and Dunedin are outperforming Auckland and Wellington.Momentum vs. Volatility: Why March’s growth might be the last hurrah before geopolitical uncertainty takes hold.The RBNZ Preview: What to expect from the first policy review under a new Governor and the importance of uncertainty in their messaging.Labour Market Resilience: Why the rising unemployment rate is currently a story of labour force growth rather than mass job cuts.Construction Costs: A teaser for tomorrow's Q1 CCCI release and why the calm before the storm is ending.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.comThis podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!In this episode, Kelvin Davidson hosts Gerard Burg, Head of Research in Australia, to discuss the global economic environment, differences and similarities between Australia and New Zealand, and their impacts on the housing markets. They explore recent monetary policy actions, supply chain issues, and geopolitical risks affecting energy and construction sectors.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.comThis podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!This week’s episode explores the sluggish start to 2026, where a weaker-than-expected Q4 GDP result meets a growing sense of sales fatigue. Nick and Kelvin break down why the movers are the key to the next price cycle and how the Reserve Bank might navigate the worst-case scenario of stagflation.Is the New Zealand property market hitting a crescendo of sluggishness? Following a strong end to 2025, the first two months of 2026 have seen sales volumes dip by 7-8% year-on-year. In this episode, Nick and Kelvin provide essential property market advice on whether this is a temporary timing issue or the start of a more sustained slowdown.We also dive into the Q4 GDP undershoot (0.2% vs. the RBNZ's 0.5% forecast) and what it means for interest rate stability. Plus, we address direct listener feedback on the trap of using averages and why the movers in the market are currently paying a 2% premium over first-home buyers.This week, Nick and Kelvin discuss: The sales slump: Why January and February were softer than expected and why our 100k annual sales forecast might be dialed back.The mover premium: New research showing that second-and-third-home buyers are paying 2% more relative to CV than first-home buyers.GDP reality check: Why the Q4 undershoot provides a silver lining for those hoping for lower-for-longer interest rates.The Iran ripple effect: Exploring second-round inflation and why the Reserve Bank is in its absolute worst-case position.Rental market weakness: Why the stock measure of rents is at its lowest annual change in nearly 20 years.Averages vs. case studies: A response to listener Carl Horne on the limitations of median data.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.comThis podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The Q4 Affordability Report is out, and the data shows a significant shift in the New Zealand housing market. After four years of adjustments, key measures of affordability are returning to long-term averages - but as geopolitical tensions rise, will this recovery be cut short?This week, Nick and Kelvin provide essential property market advice on how to interpret these "normalising" figures and what the latest migration turnaround means for rental demand. They also tackle the uncomfortable economic ripple effects of the ongoing Middle East conflict and what it might mean for the Reserve Bank’s next move.In this episode, Nick and Kelvin discuss:The affordability reset: Why mortgage payments as a proportion of income have finally hit the 20-year average.Regional winners: Auckland and Wellington’s surprising status as "below average" for debt servicing costs.The rental challenge: Why renters are still facing a "28% burden" and how new migration arrivals could add pressure.Migration momentum: Analysing the net gain of 23,000 and the easing of departures.Geopolitical inflation vs. growth: The "petrol tax" on households and the risk of a medium-term recessionary impact.RBNZ watch: Is a November OCR hike now a "lock", and could it move even sooner?Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.comThis podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!A surprise 0.2% rise in national property values meets a shifting global landscape. Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson analyse how geopolitical tensions could force the Reserve Bank's hand.In this episode, the research desk tackles the unexpected 0.2% rise in the February Home Value Index. While an upturn always starts somewhere, the significance of this month is its broad-based nature - with every main centre, including Auckland, seeing growth simultaneously for the first time in nearly a year. However, a new global uncertainty has arrived. We break down the domestic fallout from the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, including the immediate petrol price shock and how it acts as a direct tax on Kiwi households. We also discuss the flight to safety in financial markets and what a falling NZ dollar means for our inflation outlook.This week, we discuss:The February Index Surprise: Why growth in Auckland, Christchurch, and Dunedin suggests a new market phase. The Geopolitical Inflation Risk: How shipping costs and oil prices could impact the next OCR decision. The Exchange Rate Factor: Understanding the flight to safety and its impact on importing costs. Market Resilience: Analysing the 15% year-on-year rise in dwelling consents and the labour market trough. Affordability Preview: Key themes ahead of this Wednesday’s full Q4 report release.  Links mentioned in the show:February HVIHousing Affordability Report (Available Wednesday 11 March 2026)Kelly Eckhold on Middle Eastern conflictSign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.comThis podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!January’s lending data has landed, and while the crazy peak of December has passed, the underlying numbers reveal a market that is far from quiet. In this week's Monday morning yarn, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson dive into a return to normality for New Zealand lending. After the bank-switching surge of late 2025, January's figures show a billion-dollar increase over the previous year, signaling a resilient start to 2026. But the real story isn't just the volume - it’s who is taking the debt and how they are structuring it. This week, Nick and Kelvin break down:The LVR Appetite Shift: Why first-home buyers are increasingly comfortable operating outside the 20% deposit norm, with a record 57% of FHB loans now done at low-deposit levels. Investor Re-engagement: A look at the tick-up in low-deposit investor lending (now at 3%) and what this tells us about the willingness of investors to increase debt despite high holding costs. The Repricing Strategy: Why 30% of all existing mortgage debt is now fixed for at least 12 months - the highest level in years - as borrowers position themselves for a rising interest rate environment. Non-Performing Loans: The surprising data on pockets of trouble (or the lack thereof) and why mortgagee sales haven't spiked despite the economic climate. Woman and Property Report 2026: A deep dive into the Knowledge Gap, where 16% of women report not knowing where to start in property - triple the rate of their male counterparts.Generational Sustainability: Why Gen Z is leading the charge on energy upgrades and the financial hurdles that remain for older homeowners. Why This Matters for YouUnderstanding the January Reset is critical for anyone planning their 2026 property moves. As the market shifts away from the December chaos, we are seeing the emergence of a new normal where first-home buyers have the ascendancy and investors are cautiously testing the limits of loosened LVR speed limits. Whether you are navigating the serviceability trap or looking for a window of opportunity in the current flat-patch, this episode provides the research-led perspective you won't find in the headlines.Links mentioned in the show:Latest Chart PackSpecial IWD Guest Episode: Featuring Nicole Ferguson, National Director for Loan Market NZ. Woman and Property Report 2026Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.comThis podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!In this episode of the New Zealand Property Market podcast, Cotality Head of Research Nick Goodall interviews Nicole Ferguson, National Director of Loan Market NZ to celebrate International Women's Day 2026. Nicole shares her journey from Australia to New Zealand, her leadership experiences, and insights on gender equity in the property and finance industries. We explore challenges faced by women, the importance of confidence and curiosity, and the future of sustainable housing and AI in finance, with reference to the 2026 Cotality Women & Property report.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.comThis podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!This week, following the release of the Cotality Monthly Chart Pack for February, Nick and Kelvin discuss recent sales data, regional buyer trends, and economic indicators. They explore the impact of timing on market activity, regional disparities, and the influence of economic recovery on housing demand following the RBNZ MPS and OCR hold from last week.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.comThis podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.