The January lending reset & the record-breaking FHB

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January’s lending data has landed, and while the crazy peak of December has passed, the underlying numbers reveal a market that is far from quiet. 

In this week's Monday morning yarn, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson dive into a return to normality for New Zealand lending. After the bank-switching surge of late 2025, January's figures show a billion-dollar increase over the previous year, signaling a resilient start to 2026. But the real story isn't just the volume - it’s who is taking the debt and how they are structuring it. 

This week, Nick and Kelvin break down:

• The LVR Appetite Shift: Why first-home buyers are increasingly comfortable operating outside the 20% deposit norm, with a record 57% of FHB loans now done at low-deposit levels. 
• Investor Re-engagement: A look at the tick-up in low-deposit investor lending (now at 3%) and what this tells us about the willingness of investors to increase debt despite high holding costs. 
• The Repricing Strategy: Why 30% of all existing mortgage debt is now fixed for at least 12 months - the highest level in years - as borrowers position themselves for a rising interest rate environment. 
• Non-Performing Loans: The surprising data on pockets of trouble (or the lack thereof) and why mortgagee sales haven't spiked despite the economic climate. 
• Woman and Property Report 2026: A deep dive into the Knowledge Gap, where 16% of women report not knowing where to start in property - triple the rate of their male counterparts.
• Generational Sustainability: Why Gen Z is leading the charge on energy upgrades and the financial hurdles that remain for older homeowners. 

Why This Matters for You

Understanding the January Reset is critical for anyone planning their 2026 property moves. As the market shifts away from the December chaos, we are seeing the emergence of a new normal where first-home buyers have the ascendancy and investors are cautiously testing the limits of loosened LVR speed limits. 

Whether you are navigating the serviceability trap or looking for a window of opportunity in the current flat-patch, this episode provides the research-led perspective you won't find in the headlines.

Links mentioned in the show:

• Latest Chart Pack
• Special IWD Guest Episode: Featuring Nicole Ferguson, National Director for Loan Market NZ. 
• Woman and Property Report 2026

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.