Market fatigue and the stagflation shadow

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This week’s episode explores the sluggish start to 2026, where a weaker-than-expected Q4 GDP result meets a growing sense of sales fatigue. Nick and Kelvin break down why the movers are the key to the next price cycle and how the Reserve Bank might navigate the worst-case scenario of stagflation.

Is the New Zealand property market hitting a crescendo of sluggishness? Following a strong end to 2025, the first two months of 2026 have seen sales volumes dip by 7-8% year-on-year. In this episode, Nick and Kelvin provide essential property market advice on whether this is a temporary timing issue or the start of a more sustained slowdown.

We also dive into the Q4 GDP undershoot (0.2% vs. the RBNZ's 0.5% forecast) and what it means for interest rate stability. Plus, we address direct listener feedback on the trap of using averages and why the movers in the market are currently paying a 2% premium over first-home buyers.

This week, Nick and Kelvin discuss: 

• The sales slump: Why January and February were softer than expected and why our 100k annual sales forecast might be dialed back.
• The mover premium: New research showing that second-and-third-home buyers are paying 2% more relative to CV than first-home buyers.
• GDP reality check: Why the Q4 undershoot provides a silver lining for those hoping for lower-for-longer interest rates.
• The Iran ripple effect: Exploring second-round inflation and why the Reserve Bank is in its absolute worst-case position.
• Rental market weakness: Why the stock measure of rents is at its lowest annual change in nearly 20 years.
• Averages vs. case studies: A response to listener Carl Horne on the limitations of median data.

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This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.