Moving Markets

Hosted today by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing). As part of a special two-week series featuring highlights from recent Julius Baer podcasts, today's show is a conversation that Helen Freer had with Diego Würgler, Head of Investment Advisory, on Julius Baer’s Beyond Markets podcast. Helen asks Diego for his thoughts on thematic investing. Our regular show that starts with daily market news returns on Monday 9th January. 

Short-dated yields in the US rose on better-than-expected economic data, implying that there is further room for the US Federal Reserve to hike rates in its quest to rein in inflation. Tim Gagie, our Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, rhymes a review of the year for currencies and Carsten Menke, our Head of Next Generation Research, speaks about one of the leading centralised crypto exchanges.00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)02:50 FX markets update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)04:29 Digital assets – Binance by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

Stock markets around the world rallied on improved consumer confidence and better-than-expected earnings reports. In Asia, technology and property companies led the rise after a series of comments from regulators supporting the overall economy and property developers. Norbert Ruecker, Head of Macro & Next Generation Research, gives an update on energy markets, and Luca Menozzi from the Next Generation Research team shares his views on ChatGPT, a chatbot that has caused quite a stir.00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)03:18 Energy update by Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics & Next Generation Research)06:13 ChatGPT (artificial intelligence) by Luca Menozzi (Next Generation Research)09:56 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

US equities were flat on the day yesterday with oil & gas stocks rising, but consumer discretionary stocks falling on weak numbers from the housing market. Following the shift in Japan’s monetary policy yesterday, Japan’s two-year government bond yield briefly rose above zero for the first time since 2015. Dario Messi, Fixed Income analyst, takes a closer look at what the Bank of Japan decided and what it means for global bond markets. Maximiliano Ranieri, Structured Products Solutions in Geneva, speaks about a European Investment Grade Credit Index.00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)03:48 Bank of Japan by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)08:26 European Investment Grade Credit Index by Maximiliano Ranieri (Structured Products Solutions Geneva)10:47 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda shocks markets in a surprise change to the bank’s yield curve policy. EU energy ministers approve a measure to limit natural gas prices to combat the energy crisis after two months of intense negotiations. And David Meier, Macro & Next Generation Research, shares his thoughts on currencies after a busy few days of central bank meetings.00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)03:30 Our view on currencies after central bank meetings by David Alexander Meier (Macro & Next Generation Research)05:55 Closing remarks by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

After a number of rate hikes from major central banks last week and officials drilling home the message that rates will go higher until they’re confident that inflation is under control, all the major indices in the US and Europe fell on Friday. Leaders in China have said they’ll focus on boosting their economy next year, and European Union member states will meet today to discuss the proposal of a much lower gas-price cap. Markus Wachter, Technical Analysis Research, provides his latest thoughts from a technical perspective.00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)03:08 Technical analysis update by Markus Wachter (Technical Analysis Research)05:54 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

The central banks of the eurozone, the UK, and Switzerland raised interest rates by half a percentage point yesterday, matching the Federal Reserve’s previous day move. Our Chief Economist, David Kohl, and our Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, Tim Gagie, join us on this show to talk about what this means for growth, inflation, and currencies. Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research speaks about the continuing fallout from FTX’s collapse, and the recent news flow around Binance.00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)04:06 Central banks update by David Kohl (Chief Economist)08:11 FX update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)11:47 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)14:13 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

The US federal Reserve delivered the expected 50 basis point hike yesterday, but stock markets were disappointed by the indication that officials expect to keep rates higher in 2023, with no reductions expected until 2024. European stock markets now nervously await decisions from the ECB, Swiss national Bank and Bank of England. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research talks us through why he expects the recent recovery in gold and silver prices to run out of steam soon, and Nicolas Jordon updates us on the latest thoughts from the bank’s investment committee.00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)03:47 Gold & Silver update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)06:58 IC Meeting update by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy)09:49 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

US stock and bond markets gained yesterday after CPI data revealed that inflation in the US is cooling. Nevertheless, headline CPI remains above 7% and whilst the Fed is expected to deliver a 50 basis point hike today, the markets are now more interested in the forecasts that they will release and the language that they use around their decision. Dario Messi from Fixed income Research joins the podcast to explain more.00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)03:02 Thoughts on strategy pre-Fed by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)06:49 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

The European Union has reached a preliminary agreement which clears the way for an EUR 18 billion support package for the Ukraine. Meanwhile, Hong Kong is scrapping some of its remaining Covid restrictions following China’s rapid shift away from its zero-covid strategy. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy gives us some insight into the opportunities emerging from China’s reopening.00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)02:44 Impact of China reopening by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)04:29 Closing remarks by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)