Moving Markets

US equity markets closed in the red on Friday and posted losses for the week following the release of November’s producer price index figures which came in higher than expected, while the major European indices closed the day in positive territory on optimism after China’s strict Covid-19 rules were relaxed. It’s central bank week this week with the US Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday, where a 50-basis-point hike is expected. Then we’ll hear from the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank, among others, on Thursday. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, provides his latest thoughts from a technical perspective.00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)03:16 Technical analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)05:33 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Today, investors are focused on US producer price data, which is among the last data US Federal Reserve policymakers will see before their December meeting next week. In Asia, China is experiencing a rapid rise in Covid infections, but outgoing Premier Li Keqiang said the country’s economic growth will still “keep picking up”. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, provides an update on the latest movements in currencies, and Manuel Villegas from the Next Generation Research team talks about what is currently driving the crypto space.00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)02:50 FX update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)06:26 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)09:32 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

US and Asian stock markets closed fairly flat yesterday and overnight, with only Hong Kong seeing any meaningful gains, based on local news reporting of further covid restrictions being lifted. Investors now await more economic data this week for clues on what to expect from the US Federal Reserve next week. Amidst the oil, gas and coal headlines dominating the newswires, Norbert Rücker, Head of Macro and Next Generation Research, updates us on global energy markets. Nicolas Jordan from the CIO Office fills us in on the investment committee’s thoughts about year-end.00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)03:57 Global energy situation by Norbert Rücker (Head of Macro & Next Generation Research)07:41 IC update by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)09:13 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

It was not an economic data release, but downbeat remarks from CEOs of major US banks about growth headwinds ahead that led the US equity market lower yesterday. Yet, on the positive side of the ledger, China’s National Health Commission announced 10 new measures to ease Covid restrictions. Dario Messi, from Fixed Income Research, joined the show to talk about why the fundamental backdrop for emerging market hard-currency bonds has turned attractive.00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)03:32 Emerging market hard currency bonds upgraded to ‘Overweight’ by Dario Messi (Fixed-income Research)07:08 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

The ISM Services Index rose to 56.5 in November which has cast some doubt over a Fed pivot and contributed to US equity markets falling and US Treasury yields surging yesterday. Chinese authorities are relaxing some of their strict Covid rules, but the possibility of new tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminium might weigh on sentiment. David Meier, Senior Economist, talks about the EUR/USD outlook and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, shares his latest thoughts on what’s in store for the industrials sector.00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)02:55 The US dollar and EUR/USD outlook by David Alexander Meier (Macro & Next Generation Research)05:18 Global industrials – is the rally premature? By Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)07:29 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

OPEC+ agreed yesterday to keep its output targets unchanged. Chinese authorities appear to be engineering a major shift away from their strict Covid Zero policy with the relaxation of testing rules across major cities. Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince may be preparing to invest around USD 500 million in Credit Suisse’s CS First Boston spinout. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, provides an update on the latest market moves from a technical perspective.00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)02:53 Technical analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)04:12 Closing remarks by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)

US economic data releases on Thursday pointed to a cooling off in growth and inflation. All eyes will be on the US labour market data today and whether it can impact interest rate expectations and the markets as a whole. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, talks about whether the recent USD weakness has room to grow. Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research is on the show for the first time. He speaks about crypto and why now is the time to understand custody solutions.00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)03:17 Currencies & metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)05:12 Digital assets by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)07:23 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

US markets were buoyed yesterday by the US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell saying that smaller interest rate increases are likely to be coming – as early as this December.  Asian markets also rallied on the back of the US optimism and an initial easing in China’s Covid-zero approach. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research talks about the current moves in gold and silver, and what he expects going forwards, and Nicolas Jordan updates us on the thinking at this week’s Investment Committee meeting.00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) 03:13 Update on gold by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)05:46 IC update by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)07:44 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

One of the main stories in the market remains China, where officials have asked local authorities to avoid excessive lockdown curbs and have promised to step up vaccinations. In Europe, meanwhile, recent data has shown that price pressures have eased significantly in Spain and Germany. Investors now await inflation data for the whole eurozone later today. Dario Messi from Fixed Income Research talks about how the market has perceived the lower inflation readings in Europe and what this means in terms of increasing duration risk.00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)03:29 Fixed income market update by Dario Messi (Investment Research Analyst07:02 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

US Federal Reserve policymakers suggest that interest rates may peak higher than anticipated, foreseeing a modestly higher path for policy compared with its stance in September. UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak calls for robust pragmatism towards China, referring to the country as a systemic threat. And Damien Ng, Next Generation Research Analyst, talks to us about developments in the global immunotherapy industry and opportunities it presents for investors.00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)03:03 The power of cancer immunotherapy by Damien Ng (Next Generation Research)06:03 Closing remarks by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)