Moving Markets

Equity markets are pricing in a new reality in which US interest rates will stay higher for longer and China will no longer be a growth engine for the global economy. This has implications for investors, as Dario Messi of Fixed Income Research explains: "The momentum for higher yields in the US has increased”.00:14 Introduction by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)00:38 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)06:19 Fixed income markets by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)10:27 Closing remarks by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

China's central bank has unexpectedly cut a key interest rate due to weakness in its economy and it being on the brink of deflation, while Japan's economy accelerated in the second quarter on a surge in exports. In the US, artificial intelligence stocks led a market rally in technology stocks, while small caps traded at their lowest level in a month. Argentina was forced to devalue its currency by 18% and hiked its key interest rate by 21% after an election upset, while the Bank of Russia is meeting as the Russian ruble fell below 100 per USD. David Kohl, Chief Economist, said that the US Federal Reserve has completed its tightening cycle, while the Bank of England only has one more rate hike of 0.25% to go.00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:47 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)06:35 Outlook for Fed and Bank of England by David Kohl (Chief Economist)15:55 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

Asia Pacific markets are trading lower this morning after reported liquidity concerns at one of China's largest private wealth managers. A team at Goldman Sachs are expecting interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of June next year. Markus Wachter from the Technical Analysis Research team provides a technical insight on oil, precious metals and US and European stocks.00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:43 Markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)04:05 Technical Analysis update by Markus Wachter (Technical Analysis Research)08:12 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

The rally across markets faded into the end of trading as Fed officials warned that the battle against inflation is not yet won, despite a benign US inflation report for July. Tim Gagie, Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva, shares his thoughts on what the latest inflation data means for currencies and metals.00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:40 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)06:27 FX update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)11:31 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

A down day for US equities yesterday may not be so telling ahead of today’s all-important US inflation data release. The Italian government qualified the extent of its windfall tax on excess profits of banks; a US 10-year Treasury auction was well received; the US announces new restrictions on investments in key sectors in China; China is allowing group travel to key countries again; and oil, natural gas, and rice prices are all on the rise – so plenty to talk about on a peak summer day. Ronny Kaufmann, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis, talks about China being in a balance sheet recession, the benign US economic picture, and that a consolidation in the US equity advance may not be such a bad thing.00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:39 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)06:39 Update from the CIO Office by Ronny Kaufmann (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)11:59 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

Investor sentiment in Asia-Pacific takes a hit after China’s CPI and PPI data for July fell in tandem for the first time since November 2020, indicating deflation pressure amid weakening demand. And in a bid to restore calm to its financial system, Italy caps its new tax on banks' windfall profits at 0.1% of the firms’ assets. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research, provides his thoughts on fixed income markets and shares his expectations ahead of tomorrow’s US CPI print.00:14 Introduction by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)00:37 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)04:54 Fixed income markets by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)11:19 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

Asia Pacific markets are mixed this morning after China reported trade data that showed a worse-than-expected decline in imports and exports. US markets closed higher on Monday, despite Moody's Investors Service downgrading ten small and mid-sized US banks. The Italian government approved a surprise tax on the ‘extra profits’ of banks this year, which could bring in over EUR 2 billion to the state. Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research provides an update on digital assets.00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:32 Markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)04:17 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)07:42 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

Equities had one of their worst weeks in months, but most market participants believe this was due to profit taking rather than a significant change in the investment environment. The US employment report triggered a rally in US Treasuries - the entire yield curve has shifted significantly lower. Markus Wachter from Technical Analysis shares his thoughts on the direction of both equities and yields in the coming months.00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:38 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)06:51 Technical Analysis update by Markus Wachter (Technical Analysis Research)10:27 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

The Bank of England is the latest major central bank to raise interest rates in the face of high inflation figures. Elsewhere, earnings reports are pushing equities in one direction or the other, but US non-farm payrolls are the main focus for investors today. In Asia, China has pledged further support for the private sector and capital markets, while Hong Kong opens its doors to crypto. Also joining today’s show is Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, who shares his thoughts on the Bank of England's latest decisions and other major developments in the FX markets.00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:38 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)07:05 FX update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)13:59 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

The Bank of Japan intervened in the bond market for the second time this week in an effort to slow gains in benchmark sovereign bond yields. ADP data showed private sector job gains in the US totalled 324,000 in July outstripping expectations, driven by a jump in the services sector. And Leonardo Pellandini, Equity Strategy Research, provides an update on how the Q2 earnings season is progressing.00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:35 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)04:37 Q2 Earnings season update by Leonardo Pellandini (Equity Strategy Research)07:41 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.