Moving Markets

Mixed US jobs data, a string of underwhelming earnings reports, another lower-than-expected reading on US manufacturing activity and Fitch's surprise downgrade of US sovereign debt are weighing on markets today. Dario Messi of Fixed Income Research comments on the latest twists and turns in the fixed income markets.00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:58 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)06:26 Central Bank actions last week and this week by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)12:30 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

On this last day of July, investors this morning are still digesting last week’s central bank actions and assessing the latest supportive government measures from China. In commodities, oil – although trading lower this morning – is broadly supported and on track for its biggest monthly gain in over a year. In equities, more earnings reports and a slew of economic data releases could drive this week’s market action. Mensur Pocinci, our Head of Technical Analysis, joins today’s episode with his views on yields and equity markets.00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:44 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)05:17 Technical Analysis viewpoints by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis) 08:28 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

After the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point and the European Central Bank followed suit, it was the Bank of Japan’s turn to announce its policy decisions this morning. While leaving its monetary policy unchanged, it signalled a loosening of its yield curve control, and this has caused volatility in the markets. Meanwhile, economic and labour market data from the US continues to signal strength, leading some to question whether the Fed will raise rates again. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, also joins today’s show and he reports on the latest developments in FX markets with a focus on the currency calls from our Market Outlook campaign.00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:49 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)07:35 Mid-Year Market Outlook - FX market update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)14:34 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

Yesterday the US raised rates by 25 basis points in line with market expectations, and gave no hints as to whether a further hike will take place on September 20th. Markets took the news in their stride and Asian stocks rallied this morning. Today it’s the ECB’s turn and they are also expected to raise rates by 25bps. With oil settling above USD 80 a barrel, Norbert Ruecker, Head of Macro and Next Generation Research, shares his thoughts on where the bullishness is coming from, and Nicolas Jordan updates us on the latest views from the CIO Office. 00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:46 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)06:28 Commodities update by Norbert Rücker (Head of Macro & Next Generation Research)09:57 Update from the CIO Office by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)12:50 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

Earnings results from the big tech companies are keeping investors on their toes as they wait for more colour on the interest rate decisions due today in the US and tomorrow in the Eurozone. Dario Messi of Fixed Income Research talks us through his expectations and makes the case for peripheral eurozone sovereign debt.00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:39 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)05:13 European Peripheral Government bonds by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)10:33 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.

The latest purchasing managers' indices for July from Europe and the US point to a slowdown in economic activity in both regions. Investors are now turning their attention to this week's interest rate decisions and any clues as to the future path of interest rates. In addition to economic data, earnings reports and corporate news are also driving equity markets. In the Asia-Pacific region, news that China is planning further stimulus measures has given hope and lifted stock prices in the region. Joining today's show are David Kohl, our Chief Economist, who revisits our currency calls from our Market Outlook campaign, and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, who provides an update on the current earnings season.00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:32 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)05:26 Mid-year Market Outlook – currencies by David Kohl (Chief Economist)15:05 Q2 Earnings season update by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy) 18:18 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

The outcome of the Spanish elections came as a surprise and is causing uncertainty among investors. Equity markets have generally performed well of late, with the exception of the Nasdaq, which fell slightly on Friday on heavy volumes ahead of rebalancing. However, Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, remains positive on equities, and particularly the Nasdaq.00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:49 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)05:34 Technical Analysis viewpoints by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)09:43 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

The US labour market continues to send out strong signals, which could be crucial for consumer spending and avoiding a recession this year. Meanwhile, disappointing results from some tech giants are weighing on the markets, raising the question of whether the recent rally has gone too far. Elsewhere, some commodity-related news is hitting the headlines, pushing commodity indices higher for the week. Manuel Villegas, from Next Generation Research, talks about Bitcoin’s supply mechanisms and what factors could start off Bitcoin’s next rally.00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:33 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)06:01 Digital assets by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)10:11 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.

European stocks closed higher yesterday after UK inflation came in at its lowest level in 15 months. US markets also closed higher but futures fell stateside after both Tesla (record quarterly revenue but lower margins) and Netflix (revenue miss) reported Q2 results. In Asia, the People’s Bank of China surprised traders as it stepped in harder than expected to support the yuan, and Japan delivered its first trade surplus in nearly two years. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, explains the impact of China’s recent data releases on the industrial metals market.00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:41 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)05:52 Industrial metals and China by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)08:37 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

After a somewhat sluggish start to the month, equities and bonds have picked up momentum in recent sessions, driven by positive earnings reports and lower yields. Dario Messi from our Fixed Income Research department explains why he remains positive on one of our core ideas in a risk-on environment: emerging market hard currency bonds.00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)01:00 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)05:47 Impact of China’s stuttering economy on emerging market bonds by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)11:02 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.