Moving Markets

The cooling of the US labour market suggests that the US Federal Reserve may pause its rate hike cycle in September. This sent equity prices soaring yesterday, while government bond yields fell substantially. In China's latest state-led measures, the country's largest banks are preparing to cut interest rates on existing mortgages and deposits. Bitcoin is also back in the headlines as a new ruling by a federal court in the US has given the green light for the launch of a Bitcoin ETF. In today's episode, Dario Messi from Fixed Income Research shares his views on the impact of central bank comments on bond markets and explains why we are now less convinced about the emerging market segment of the bond market.00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:29 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)05:41 Bond markets – what’s changed? by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)10:17 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

Global equities advance as investors continue to ponder central bankers’ comments at the Jackson Hole economic symposium last week and ahead of a series of key data releases later this week. Shop price inflation in the UK fell sharply to 6.9% in August reflecting hopes that this slowing in the pace of rising prices is a sign that UK households may soon be over the worst of the sharp squeeze on living standards. And David Kohl, Chief Economist, talks about the resilience of the US economy and shares with us where he thinks monetary policy will go from here.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:27 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)06:07 Jackson Hole review by David Kohl (Chief Economist)14:42 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.

After central bankers delivered no surprises to markets at Jackson Hole, equities are rallying this morning led by Chinese on-shore stocks, which are rising on the back of the new measures announced to lure investors back into the ailing stock market. Markus Wachter, from Technical Analysis, explains why he believes that the uptrend for stocks remains intact.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:23 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)06:03 Technical Analysis update by Markus Wachter (Technical Analysis Research)10:22 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

US stock markets stumbled yesterday as strong results from blockbuster Nvidia failed to boost the broader stock market and as investors seemed nervous ahead of today’s speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The negative sentiment spread to the Asia-Pacific region overnight. In other news, the BRICS group announced plans to increase its number of members, which could well lead to some complicated geopolitics going forwards. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, also joins today’s show and he comments on the major developments in the FX and metals markets.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:24 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)05:45 FX update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)10:30 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

Nvidia delivered sterling results yesterday, topping analysts’ expectations for earnings per share, revenue and the forecast for quarterly sales. Stock markets globally rallied with tech and AI stocks benefitting disproportionately. US treasuries stabilised in Asian trading, having recovered some ground in the US session on Wednesday following softer-than-expected PMI data. Norbert Ruecker, Head of Macro and Next Generation Research, provides insights into the current ups and downs of European energy prices and Nicolas Jordan shares how our Investment Committee expects the Jackson Hole Symposium to unfold.  00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:33 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)05:59 European energy market update by Norbert Rücker (Head of Macro & Next Generation Research)09:08 Update from the CIO Office by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)11:38 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

US equities fell further yesterday, weighed by concerns over rising Treasury yields ahead of a key speech later this week from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research, shares with us his recommendations on how to tackle the current environment in bond markets. And in a special contribution from Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong, we talk about the latest developments in China.00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:33 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)05:56 Bond market update by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)10:57 Latest developments in China (pre-recorded): Helen Freer (Investment Writing) and Richard Tang (Head of Research Hong Kong)11:26 China: Triggers for latest economic concerns 13:09 China: Impact of Chinese deflation14:36 China: Explanation of recent rate decisions15:43 China: Support for the property sector17:29 China: Increase in risks to growth?18:47 China: Our current investment philosophy19:47 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

The sell-off in US bond markets resumed yesterday, pushing yields on typical Treasuries and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) up to levels not seen in years. Meanwhile, tech stocks rallied on optimistic earnings reports, which is particularly interesting as they have historically struggled in a high interest rate environment. In Asia, Japanese yields also surged, fuelling speculation that the Bank of Japan could launch an unscheduled bond-buying operation. Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research joins today’s episode with his views on the latest news on digital assets. 00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:41 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)05:25 Latest news on digital assets by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)08:17 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

Banks in China have cut their short-term lending rates, but markets are disappointed having expected more. Meanwhile, fixed income investors are looking for clues on monetary policy at this week's Jackson Hole conference. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, sees the market rout in August as a consolidation only.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:30 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)05:45 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)09:48 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

Higher bond yields in developed markets are spooking equity markets, but some on the bond side see the higher yields as too attractive to miss out on. Services prices in Japan rose at the fastest annual rate since 1993. China is pushing hard against a weaker yuan. Bitcoin drops like a stone on a report that Elon Musk's SpaceX company has sold the digital asset. A big options expiration day could explain some sharp moves in the US today. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, also joins today’s podcast and he notes that the British Pound has a big interest rate advantage over the CHF.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:20 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)06:32 FX update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)11:29 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

Strong economic data out of the US highlighting the country’s resilience contrasts with an increasingly worrying picture in China and economic woes in Europe. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, provides an update on industrial metals in the context of developments in China. And Ronny Kaufmann, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis, shares with us the latest decisions from Julius Baer’s Investment Committee.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:33 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)05:59 Industrial metals by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)10:46 Update from the CIO Office by Ronny Kaufmann (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)15:37 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.