Moving Markets

The United States and China have taken a step towards resolving their trade dispute, with both sides describing their initial talks in Switzerland this weekend as constructive. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent mentioned substantial progress, lifting equity markets in Asia and boosting investor sentiment. Meanwhile, safe havens like gold are feeling the pressure. Our guest, Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, joins us to discuss where he sees the most upside as good news on the trade landscape keeps on rolling in, at least for now. Tune in to find out how these developments are moving markets.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:28 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)07:02 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)09:50 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.

The US and the UK agreed a new trade deal yesterday, making the UK the first country to reach a deal with the US since US President Trump introduced new tariffs a month ago. Although this boosted global market sentiment, with US and European markets closing higher, UK stocks underperformed. The deal also weighed on safe-haven assets like US Treasuries and gold. Meanwhile, the Bank of England’s rate cut by 25 basis points was seen as a supportive move for the UK economy. Asia-Pacific markets were largely higher overnight, buoyed by China's stronger-than-expected export growth in April and a narrowing import decline, which brings some relief to Beijing ahead of tariff talks with the US this weekend. Joining us to discuss the latest developments in foreign exchange and metals markets is Tim Gagie, Head of FX and Precious Metals Solutions in Geneva.00:00 Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing00:27 Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Investment Writing07:26 FX and metals: Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva11:45 Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment WritingWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting yesterday and Chair Jerome Powell made it clear that with inflation still running above target, the Fed has no intention of cutting rates pre-emptively. He also warned that if tariff levels remain where they are, then a risk is posed to economic growth and inflation. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, provides more insight into the Fed’s decision making and its market impact on today’s show and Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, provides a timely update on the oil market, sharing his insights into the latest market events.00:00 Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing00:38 Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing06:49 Oil update: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research10:22 Bond market update post-Fed: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research17:36 Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment WritingWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

It took two attempts, but German conservative leader Merz was elected chancellor by parliament on Tuesday after an unprecedented defeat on the first attempt got his coalition government off to a wobbly start. Market sentiment took another U-turn yesterday, with global equities falling back for a second day ahead of today’s US Federal Reserve rate decision. News that trade negotiations are going well and that initial US and China trade talks will take place this Saturday did little to improve investors’ mood. Richard Tang, Head of Research in Hong Kong, discusses how markets reacted to the news and provides more details on Beijing’s policy measures as well as the geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan.00:00 Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing00:28 Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing06:09 Asia update: Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong14:29 Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment WritingWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

US equities struggled yesterday as the S&P 500 index snapped its nine-day winning streak with a modest rotation into defensive stocks. Meanwhile, the broad US dollar sell-off against Asian currencies is fuelling speculation that regional economies are allowing their currencies to strengthen to gain leverage in US trade negotiations. Also on today’s podcast, we are joined by Nenad Dinic, Equity Strategy Research, who shares his insights on Japan as well as the recent outperformance of emerging markets relative to developed market equities.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:28 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)06:20 Japan and EM Asia equities by Nenad Dinic (Equity Strategy Research)12:04,8 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.

Global equity markets have largely recovered their losses since 2 April, or Liberation Day, with Australia, Mexico and Germany's DAX among the best performers. Warren Buffett will step down as the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway at the end of the year after 45 years. Brent oil falls below USD 60 a barrel, a four-year low, after OPEC+ announces further supply increases. The Taiwan dollar has jumped 5% against the USD, its biggest intraday gain in 30 years, sparking speculation that Asian countries are seeking to revalue their currencies to win US trade concessions. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis Research, notes that Germany's DAX index is within 2% of its all-time high, reflecting its relative strength against US equities.00:00 Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing00:31 Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Investment Writing06:28 Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis10:37 Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment WritingWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Equity markets continued their multi-day rally yesterday with the S&P 500 nearing its ‘Liberation Day’ level after the fastest 8-session gain since November 2020. The rally was driven by upbeat earnings from Microsoft and Meta. This optimism has continued overnight after China said it’s evaluating trade talks with the US, boosting optimism that tariff tensions will come down. And we have Markus Waeber from Real Estate Advisory on the show today to talk about the strong April performance of the Swiss Real Estate market and the unchanged positive outlook.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:27,5 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)06:17 Real estate update by Markus Waeber (Head of Indirect Real Estate Advisory & Intelligence)11:03 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.

Donald Trump and his policies remain a key focus for investors, particularly today as he reaches his 100th day in office. Yesterday, Trump signed orders aimed at easing the pressure on carmakers, whilst Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick hinted that the US has secured a trade deal with an unnamed country, prompting a rise in US shares. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields have fallen for a seventh consecutive day, driven by weak economic data that has fuelled speculation the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates to avoid a recession. Overnight, macroeconomic data from China and Japan was released, with both countries reporting lower-than-expected figures, suggesting early signs of damage from the ongoing trade war. A closer look at individual company reports reveals a mixed picture during this earnings season. To provide further insight into this complex earnings landscape, our Head of Equity Strategy, Mathieu Racheter, joins our show today.00:00 Introduction: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing00:38 Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Investment Writing07:38 Q1 earnings season update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy11:58 Closing remarks: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment WritingWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The markets have seen some brief respite from volatility, thanks to positive developments in ongoing trade talks and upbeat company reports. However, this week promises to be action-packed, with four of the tech giants - Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon - set to release their earnings reports, which will likely dictate market direction. Joining us on the show is Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research, who shares his expert insights on the recent surge in digital assets and offers his take on whether this rally has legs.00:00 Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing00:31 Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing07:13 Digital assets update: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research12:01 Closing remarks:  Helen Freer, Investment WritingWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Equity markets continued their multi-day rally yesterday on US Federal Reserve comments indicating an openness to rate cuts and signs that trade negotiations were progressing. China may exempt some US goods from tariffs and Apple plans to shift the assembly of all US-sold iPhones to India as soon as next year. In this episode, we are joined by Tim Gagie, Head of FX and Precious Metals Solutions in Geneva, who shares his expertise on the latest developments in foreign exchange and metals markets.00:00 Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing00:24 Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing05:48 FX and metals: Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva09:59 Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment WritingWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.