Moving Markets

US President Donald Trump says he has agreed to postpone the imposition of 50% tariffs on European Union imports until 9 July as the EU continues to negotiate a trade deal with Washington. European equity futures are higher on the news. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, offers his thoughts from a technical perspective on the current US dollar weakness and the steepening Treasury yield curve.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:28 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)07:13 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)10:53 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

Yesterday’s trading session saw significant volatility in Treasury yields after the US House of Representatives approved President Trump’s major tax reform bill. This occurred amidst mixed macroeconomic data from the US. European stocks closed lower, while key US indices finished the day mixed around the zero line. Meanwhile, in Asia, one of the top stories overnight was the first phone call between the US and China since their meeting in Geneva. Asian markets were broadly higher. Bitcoin reached new record highs due to a combination of factors. To discuss the latest developments in the US dollar, platinum, and other foreign exchange and precious metals news, we are joined by Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM Private Banking in Geneva.00:00 Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing00:28 Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Investment Writing07:43 FX/Metals: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva11:12 Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment WritingWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

US markets began yesterday's trading session on a weak footing, with sentiment deteriorating further as the day progressed. Concerns over a further widening of the US budget deficit, coupled with a disappointing US Treasury auction, led to a rise in yields and credit spreads, which in turn weighed on equity prices. In contrast, European markets defied the trend, with the German DAX index reaching a new record high. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, offers his insights into the recently remarkable performance of the industrial metal copper.00:00 Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing00:24 Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing06:37 Digital assets update: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research10:55 Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment WritingWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

While European equities had another strong day yesterday, US equities took a breather following an impressive rally from their April lows. US Treasury yields near recent highs, along with the fiscal situation in the US, remain concerns for investors and weigh on sentiment and the dollar. A report about a potential attack by Israel on Iran’s nuclear facilities supported flows into traditional safe-haven assets such as the Swiss franc, the yen, and gold. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, talks about the recent rating downgrade of the US by Moody’s and about the investment implications of the US fiscal situation. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, discusses what that means for equity investors and why they should think more globally.00:00 Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing00:27 Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing05:16 Impact of Moody’s downgrade: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research08:51 The outlook for developed-market equities: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy13:25 Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment WritingWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

US stocks managed to eke out a slim gain yesterday, with the S&P 500 index notching its sixth consecutive winning session, as investors sought to look past the Moody’s downgrade of the United States’ credit rating. Meanwhile, stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region are trading in the green after China cut its lending rate, which has fuelled some broad-based up moves across the region. Also on today’s podcast, we are joined by Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong, who provides insights into his expectations for Chineseand Japanese equity markets.00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:28 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)05:52 Asia update by Richard Tang (Head of Research Hong Kong)12:44 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.

The Nasdaq surged 7% last week, driven by the US-China trade truce and President Trump's USD 2 trillion Middle East deals. Novo Nordisk's CEO resigned, and Moody's downgraded the US credit rating due to rising deficits. In China, retail sales grew 5.1% year-on-year, despite slowing industrial output. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, notes that the short-term US equity market recovery remains intact, even as the USD remains in a bear market.00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:28 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)05:58 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)08:16 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

Global equities ended Thursday’s trading session mostly higher, with defensive and defence stocks leading the gains while big tech was mostly lower. This came while Walmart’s CEO warned yesterday that tariffs would force it to raise prices this year - even after the recent decrease in duties on China - and data included softer US producer prices as well as underwhelming retail sales. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, talks about what this means for bond markets and why he would cut the allocation to higher-risk segments. And Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM Private Banking Geneva, discusses his expectations for a weaker Swiss franc and highlights his preferred currency pair.00:00 Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing00:31 Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing06:22 Bond market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research10:49 FX and metals: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva15:12 Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment WritingWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

European markets closed lower on Wednesday after the positive sentiment induced by the weekend’s interim trade deal between China and the US seemed to run of steam. The Dow Jones closed in the red, although the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite closed the day slightly higher, mainly driven by the mega-cap names and a few select beneficiaries of President Trump’s trade deals in Doha. US Treasury prices and gold felt the effect of easing trade tensions, as well as the market revising its expectations of Fed rate cuts in 2025. Asia’s equity markets were lower today. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, joins the podcast to provide extra insight into gold’s move lower.00:00 Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing00:24 Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing05:47 Gold: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research09:16 Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment WritingWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

US markets rallied on the back of a US-China trade truce and lower-than-expected inflation data, easing recession concerns and boosting equities. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices rose, driven by gains in tech stocks, such as Nvidia and AMD, following a major semiconductor deal with a Saudi Arabian AI firm. In Asia, Hong Kong's market gained ground following strong earnings from JD.com, whereas Japan's Nikkei 225 experienced a slight decline after a 13-day uptrend. Looking ahead, European shares are poised to open flat, building on the previous day's positive session, which was fuelled by improved sentiment in Germany and a record high for the DAX. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, observes that Q1 earnings have exceeded expectations, but companies are issuing cautious guidance due to reduced visibility on the economic outlook.00:00 Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing00:27 Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Investment Writing06:47 Earnings/Equity Market update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy11:08 Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment WritingWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

After the US and China both slashed their reciprocal tariff rates, US markets responded with jubilation yesterday, sparking an impressive rally with the S&P 500 building on its recent run as investors priced out the chance of a downturn. Also on today’s podcast, we are joined by David Meier, Senior Economist, who shares his insights on the impact of recent trade talks, and Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, who provides an update on the outlook for digital assets following the recent recovery in crypto markets.00:00 Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing00:38 Markets wrap-up: Jonti Warris, Investment Writing06:13 Trade talks progress: Dave Meier, Senior Economist12:41 Digital assets update: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research16:44 Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment WritingWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.