Moving Markets

US-China trade talks continue to progress positively and may conclude soon, but have still yet to reach an agreement. Optimism among investors has led to stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region rallying today, with tech stocks in particular leading the charge. Also on today’s podcast, we are joined by Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, who provides us with an update on equity markets and offers his outlook for how investors should position themselves for the rest of the year.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing (00:55) - Markets wrap-up: Jonti Warris, Investment Writing (06:32) - Equity markets update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy (10:34) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

US representatives including US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met with China’s vice premier and lead trade negotiator He Lifeng in London yesterday. Both sides have temporarily slashed tariffs to allow the talks to progress following President Trump’s phone conversation with the Chinese President Xi Jinping last Thursday. As the talks enter day two, US and Asian stock markets are cautiously optimistic. Indeed, the MSCI China Index has now rallied sufficiently to enter a bull market. Meanwhile, the markets will also be watching US inflation data tomorrow for indications regarding the next move by the Fed at their meeting next week. With Bitcoin rallying to less than 2% shy of the record high, Manual Villegas from Next Generation Research joins the podcast with all the latest news on stablecoins and the opportunities and challenges facing those who invest in them.(00:00) - Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) (00:28) - Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) (06:16) - Digital assets – stablecoins by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research) (11:46) - Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

US equities closed lower after choppy trading on Thursday, although they ended off worst levels. This followed three straight daily gains for the S&P 500, and major indices remain on track for modest weekly gains. Yesterday, big tech was mixed but Tesla notably lagged as Musk and Trump's public war of words escalated. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank cut rates as expected, but surprised markets with a more hawkish tone, casting doubt on the likelihood of another rate cut in July. Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM Private Banking in Geneva, discusses what this means for the euro and how to position for today’s US payrolls.(00:00) - Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) (00:25) - Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing) (05:34) - FX and metals markets by Tim Gagie (Head of FX/PM PB Geneva) (10:02) - Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The MSCI All-Country World Index is back at a new all-time high. The German government announcement of a EUR 46 billion tax relief package boosted European investor confidence, propelling the German DAX to a new high. US private-sector labour market data revealed weak job growth, triggering a sharp decline in US Treasury yields. In Asian markets, China's services sector showed signs of growth, while Japan's economy was affected by declining inflation-adjusted earnings for the fourth consecutive month. Today, attention turns to the European Central Bank. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, talks about the tectonic shifts in the oil and gas markets and Nicolas Jordan, CIO Office, discusses what the US equity market recovery and the USD weakness mean for investors.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing (00:30) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Investment Writing (05:39) - Oil update: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research (10:14) - Update from the CIO Office: Nicolas Jordan, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis (14:28) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The S&P500 index now is at the brink of entering technical bull market territory, up nearly 20% since its lows after ‘Liberation Day’. Yesterday, equity markets rose, fuelled by a surprise fall of inflation in Europe, good labour market data in the US, a perceived easing of trade tensions and some AI chips-excitement following Meta’s energy deal. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, joins us to share his views on where yields go and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, speaks about the point at which yield levels start to trouble equity markets.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing (00:34) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing (06:34) - Bond Market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research (11:18) - Equity strategy update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy (15:33) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

With Trump imposing new import tariffs on steel and aluminium, prices of the two metals on the US physical market have soared, lifting shares of domestic steelmakers. However, there is still a glimmer of hope on the trade front, with reports emerging that Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are set to hold talks ‘very soon’. Meanwhile, stock markets around the world have seen some volatility as investors digest the latest manufacturing activity data. Treasury yields, which have been in the spotlight recently, remained stable overnight after strong demand was seen at a 10-year Japanese government bond auction. Joining us on the show today is Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research, who gives us an update on digital assets.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Investment Writing (07:30) - Digital assets update: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research (11:34) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

US action was somewhat muted on Friday, although indices closed the month of May comfortably higher. President Trump announced that he was doubling import tariffs on steel and aluminium. He also accused China of breaking the Geneva agreement. China has responded today to say that they have not. Markets in Asia are mostly lower this morning on the back of this, and US futures point to a lower open today. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, joins the show to discuss the relevance, or not, of that age-old adage: ‘Sell in May and go away’.(00:00) - Introduction: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing (05:36) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (09:52) - Closing remarks: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The US economy contracted by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2025, fueling ongoing recession concerns amidst escalating trade tensions and mixed economic indicators. Technology giant NVIDIA posted strong quarterly results, providing a much-needed boost to market sentiment. US courts are deliberating on the authority to impose tariffs, with the decision pending between President Trump and the Senate. President Trump held his first meeting with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell since taking office, marking a significant encounter. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the US-China trade negotiations as "a bit stalled," which is exerting downward pressure on Asian markets today. Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Sales in Geneva, notes that the US dollar remained range-bound throughout the week and provides his thoughts on the tariff news.00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:27,5 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)06:04 FX and metals markets by Tim Gagie (Head of FX/PM PB Geneva)10:04 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

US stock markets played catch-up yesterday after a long holiday weekend. A boost in consumer confidence in both the US and Germany also contributed to the upbeat market mood, as did reports that the US is nearing the signing of new trade deals, potentially as early as this week. In the Asia-Pacific region overnight, equity markets delivered a mixed performance, with South Korea posting the strongest gains, driven largely by a surge in semiconductor stocks as investors positioned themselves ahead of Nvidia's earnings report later today. Meanwhile, shifts in longer-dated government bond yields remain the dominant theme in fixed income. To shed more light on the latest developments, we are joined today by Dario Messi, our Head of Fixed Income Research.00:00 Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing01:01 Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Investment Writing07:31 Bond market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research12:06 Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment WritingWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Trade tensions took centre stage again, as President Donald Trump delayed the imposition of 50% tariffs on the EU until early July. The move sparked a relief rally in European markets, while the US dollar fell to its lowest level since 2022. Trading volumes remained subdued due to holidays in the US and UK markets. Meanwhile, Japan's long-term yields declined as the Ministry of Finance is apparently considering reducing bond issuance, which would be a potential boost for stocks and the yen. Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, joins us to discuss his insights on the potential investment case for digital assets and he also provides an update on AI.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing (00:34) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing (06:33) - Digital assets and AI update: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research (13:24) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.