Moving Markets

The ceasefire between Israel and Iran appears to be holding, and equity markets worldwide have been buoyed by positive sentiment. This shift in sentiment has also been evident in commodity markets, where oil prices fell back to pre-escalation levels and gold prices declined accordingly. Meanwhile, in the US, attention is focused on Jerome Powell’s testimony before the House Committee, where investors are hoping to gain insight into the Federal Reserve’s future interest rate policy. To discuss the latest developments in fixed income and monetary policy, we are joined this morning by Dario Messi, our Head of Fixed Income Research.(00:00) - Introduction: Jonti Warris, Investment Writing (00:24) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Investment Writing (06:25) - Bond market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research (11:49) - Closing remarks: Jonti Warris, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Oil prices have continued to fall after Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire in the Israel-Iran conflict, as the immediate threat to the vital Strait of Hormuz shipping lane appears to have fallen. Asia-Pacific markets are rallying sharply on the news, while European and US stock futures are also strongly higher. Also on today’s podcast, we are joined by Markus Waeber, Head of Indirect Real Estate Advisory & Intelligence, who provides an update on the Swiss real estate market now that interest rates in Switzerland have fallen to zero.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Jonti Warris, Investment Writing (07:20) - Swiss real estate market update: Markus Waeber, Head of Indirect Real Estate Advisory & Intelligence (12:36) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets are responding calmly this morning following the US airstrikes on Iran at the weekend, with oil prices initially spiking before retreating to previous levels. Global stocks are trading mixed as investors await potential Iranian reprisals and key economic indicators, including flash Purchasing Managers' Indices and US Personal Consumption Expenditure data later in the week. Key events this week include a speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde today, the NATO summit, and testimony by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell before Congress on Tuesday. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, observes that US equity markets are climbing the wall of worry amid the uncertainty in the Middle East, and he notes that the EUR is at a 10-year high against the JPY.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Investment Writing (05:25) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (09:02) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

While US markets were closed yesterday for the Juneteenth holiday, the rest of the world did not escapemarket volatility. Global stocks fell as uncertainty surrounding the Israel-Iran conflict and potential US involvement continued. Meanwhile, central banks made their interest rate announcements: the Swiss National Bank cut its benchmark rate to 0%, whereas the Bank of England kept rates unchanged at 4.25%. This morning, oil prices have reversed slightly, trading lower; while gold is also down, putting it on track for a weekly loss. Joining us to discuss the latest developments in the US dollar, the Swiss franc, and precious metals is Tim Gagie, our Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva.(00:00) - Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) (00:31) - Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing) (06:26) - FX and metals markets by Tim Gagie (Head of FX/PM PB Geneva) (10:36) - Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets await clarity on US involvement in the Middle East conflict. The US Federal Reserve holds rates steady, citing inflation and tariff uncertainty. US bank stocks rise on deregulation hopes, while crypto stocks surge after stablecoin legislation passes. The Swiss National Bank will be the first major central bank to lower interest rates to 0% today. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, provides our latest views on the oil market amid the war in the Middle East. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, talks about two interesting markets amid all the uncertainty: Swiss mid-caps and Indian stocks.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Investment Writing (05:17) - Oil: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research (09:30) - Equity markets: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy (13:32) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Donald Trump says he wants a “real end” to the nuclear dispute with Iran, rather than just a ceasefire in the conflict with Israel, and demands “unconditional surrender”. The escalating tensions and another set of weak US macro data triggered a risk-off sentiment, weighing on equities and boosting oil prices. As the Federal Reserve prepares to announce its interest rate decision later today, investors remain cautious amidst heightened volatility in the energy market and growing concerns about a broader crisis in the Middle East. To provide insight into the implications of these events on bond markets, we have Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, on the show who shares his expectations for the US central bank's actions in the coming months.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing (00:24) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing (05:39) - Bond markets: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research (10:46) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

US and European equity markets rallied on Monday, closing their sessions in positive territory. However, after President Trump called for the immediate evacuation of Tehran and decided to abandon the G7 summit to return to Washington, futures turned south. With the exception of Japan, most Asian equity markets turned in a nervous performance overnight as markets wait to see what direction the Israel/Iran situation takes next. US data and tomorrow’s FOMC decision will also be closely monitored. On todays’ show, Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, provides an update on digital assets where demand is strong and he sees a healthy derivatives market.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing (00:48) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing (06:54) - Digital assets: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research (11:01) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

As geopolitical tensions escalate, with Iran and Israel continuing to trade retaliatory blows, direct US involvement has so far been avoided. The sell-off in equities remains relatively contained, while the safe havens of gold, oil and the Swiss franc see inflows. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, offers his thoughts from a technical perspective on the US dollar weakness and the recent rebound in oil.(00:00) - Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) (00:28) - Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing) (07:25) - Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis) (09:46) - Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Oil prices are surging up to 10%, while equity futures are declining. Safe-haven assets like gold and US Treasuries are gaining traction. Overall, the initial market reaction to the escalation of hostilities in the Middle East is relatively contained, except for oil, as the situation remains fluid and uncertain. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, talks about what to expect from the US, UK, Japanese, and Swiss central banks next week. Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM Private Banking Geneva, discusses the Middle East crisis and its potential short-term impact on the US dollar, which is close to a multi-year low, and gold, which is approaching its all-time high. He also comments on platinum amid a supply/demand imbalance.(00:00) - Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) (01:01) - Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing) (05:43) - Bond market update by Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research) (10:19) - FX and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX/PM PB Geneva) (14:13) - Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Although the US trade deal with China is ‘done’, according to President Trump, the worst is not yet over for other countries. They can expect to receive a letter from Trump outlining his terms for trade in the coming weeks. Renewed trade tensions and escalating conflicts in the Middle East are dampening investor sentiment. Yesterday, stock markets saw a broad decline, while oil and gold prices rose. Also on the show today is our Group Chief Investment Officer, Yves Bonzon, who offers valuable insights into the current market landscape. Additionally, Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, provides an update on the evolving dynamics in the commodities market.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing (00:27) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Investment Writing (07:18) - Market update (macro update, USD, gold): Yves Bonzon, Group CIO (16:01) - Commodities update: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research (22:25) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.