The Art of Investing

This week on The Art of Investing, Rich McDonald, Mark “Spice” Holden and Chris “CJ” Fellingham are joined by Stu Thompson, Economic Strategist, to break down a market being driven less by fundamentals, and more by shifting interest rate expectations.With central banks holding steady but markets rapidly repricing from rate cuts to potential hikes, the team explore whether interest rate expectations have become disconnected from reality.They also dive into continued stress in private credit, the impact of oil and geopolitics on inflation, and why bond markets are no longer providing the diversification investors expect.The big question: are markets overreacting, and where are the opportunities if they are?This Week’s Highlights:🏦 Rate Expectations FlipMarkets move from pricing cuts to multiple hikes, a huge shift in sentiment.📉 Bonds Fail to DiversifyGilts and treasuries fall alongside equities, challenging traditional portfolio theory.⚠️ Private Credit Stress BuildsRedemption limits and liquidity concerns continue to emerge.⛽ Oil & Inflation RiskEnergy prices remain the key driver of inflation expectations.📊 Markets Still ResilientDespite volatility, equities hold up better than many expected.🧠 Don’t Fight the NoiseWhy long-term investors should avoid reacting to short-term headlines.Portfolio Snapshot - Week 32:Weekly performance: –1.7%Total return since inception: +12.5%Top Performers🥇 iShares Russell 2000 ETF: +1.1%🥈 Cash: +0.1%🥉 iShares UK Gilts 0–5yr ETF: –0.4%Underperformers📉 WisdomTree Copper ETF: –5.4%📉 VanEck Crypto & Blockchain Innovators ETF: –3.7%📉 iShares MSCI India ETF: –2.9%Portfolio Positioning:The portfolio remains diversified across:• Commodities and real assets• Global equities (US, UK, Europe, EM)• Small and mid-cap exposure• Bonds and cash as stabilisersHowever, this week highlights a key theme: diversification doesn’t always protect during inflation-driven shocks.Big Questions This Week:• Have interest rate expectations become unrealistic?• Are central banks likely to follow market pricing?• Is private credit the next major risk area?• Can equities continue to hold up if rates stay higher?What You’ll Learn:✔️ How markets price interest rates (and why it matters)✔️ Why bonds don’t always offset equity risk✔️ What’s really driving current market moves✔️ How to stay disciplined during volatile periods📈 Download the full Portfolio Performance SlidesView the portfolio breakdown: here📧 Get in touch: theartofinvesting@ig.comSubscribe for weekly investing insight and to follow the live portfolio in real time.Disclaimer:This podcast is provided for educational and informational purposes only. The content presented is not intended as personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular securities or investments. All discussions regarding the model portfolio are illustrative and for educational purposes.Your capital is at risk. The value of shares, ETFs and ETCs can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in.JISA Incentive: Dates: 2nd March to 5th AprilDetails: Invest £50 and get £50. First 200 clients will get £250. First trade has to be £50 or more to receive the £50 bonus. New clients only. The bonus of £50 will be credited to the Junior ISA by 30 April 2026. PROMO CODE: JISAPODCAST📋T&Cs: https://www.ig.com/uk/jisa-cash-bonus-50-feb-26https://www.ig.com/uk/jisa-cash-bonus-250-feb-26Beat The Street Competition:More Info here: https://bts.ig.com/uk/beat-the-street/home📋T&Cs: The “Beat the Street” competition is open to UK legal residents aged 18+ and there’s a limit of one registration per person. The promoter is IG Trading and Investments Ltd and you can enter and find full T&C’s at ig.com/uk/beat-the-street. 

This week on The Art of Investing, Rich McDonald, Mark “Spice” Holden and Chris “CJ” Fellingham break down a more fragile market backdrop as momentum stalls and volatility creeps back in.With commodities cooling, equities diverging and bond markets wobbling, the team ask whether this is a healthy pause… or the start of something more meaningful.They’re also joined by Geopolitical Strategist Roger Lee to unpack how investors should think during periods of crisis, and what history tells us about how markets behave when conflicts unfold.The focus this week: what’s really driving returns now, and how investors should respond when leadership becomes less clear.This Week’s Highlights:📉 Momentum SlowsAfter weeks of strong gains, markets begin to lose steam as leadership narrows.⛏️ Commodities PauseMining stocks pull back sharply after a huge run, testing conviction in the trade.🪙 Crypto BouncesCrypto-linked equities recover, highlighting ongoing volatility in risk assets.🌍 Global DivergenceDifferent regions move in opposite directions, making allocation more important than ever.🏦 Bonds Back in FocusWeakness in fixed income raises questions about diversification again.🧠 Staying DisciplinedWhy periods like this matter more than strong up weeks for long-term investors.Portfolio Snapshot - Week 31:Weekly performance: –0.3%Total return since inception: +14.2%Top Performers🥇 VanEck Crypto & Blockchain Innovators ETF: +3.5%🥈 iShares Nikkei 225 ETF: +0.2%🥉 iShares Core FTSE 100 ETF: +0.2%Underperformers📉 BlackRock World Mining Trust: –5.9%📉 Vanguard FTSE 250 ETF: –1.4%📉 iShares Russell 2000 ETF: –1.2%Portfolio Positioning:The portfolio remains broadly diversified across:• Commodities and real assets• Global equities (US, UK, Europe, EM)• Select small-cap exposure• Bonds and cash as stabilisersDespite a weaker week, diversification continues to dampen volatility as leadership rotates.Big Questions This Week:• Is this just a pause after a strong run?• Are commodities topping out short term?• What happens if bonds and equities both struggle?• Where is the next leadership coming from?What You’ll Learn:✔️ Why pullbacks are a key part of long-term returns✔️ How to interpret changing market leadership✔️ Why diversification matters most in mixed markets✔️ How to stay disciplined when momentum fades📈 Download the full Portfolio Performance SlidesView the portfolio breakdown: here📧 Get in touch: theartofinvesting@ig.comSubscribe for weekly investing insight and to follow the live portfolio in real time.Disclaimer:This podcast is provided for educational and informational purposes only. The content presented is not intended as personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular securities or investments. All discussions regarding the model portfolio are illustrative and for educational purposes.Your capital is at risk. The value of shares, ETFs and ETCs can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in.JISA Incentive:Dates: 2nd March to 5th AprilDetails: Invest £50 and get £50. First 200 clients will get £250. First trade has to be £50 or more to receive the £50 bonus. New clients only. The bonus of £50 will be credited to the Junior ISA by 30 April 2026. PROMO CODE: JISAPODCAST📋T&Cs: https://www.ig.com/uk/jisa-cash-bonus-50-feb-26https://www.ig.com/uk/jisa-cash-bonus-250-feb-26

They unpack a sudden oil shock and how rising energy prices ripple into inflation expectations and central bank timing. Liquidity worries in private credit and semi-liquid funds get scrutiny without naming outcomes. Sector rotation and consumer stress explain why software and travel diverge. They debate why markets stay oddly calm despite geopolitical shocks and changing correlations across assets.

J.P. Smith, an emerging markets and Middle East expert, provides concise historical and geopolitical context on Iran. He discusses recent strikes, regional scenarios and how oil shocks can ripple into inflation and rates. Conversations cover tail risks to shipping and gas, comparisons with past Middle East crises, and potential market and portfolio implications.

Global markets push higher while commodities and emerging markets drive portfolio gains. Mining and copper rally alongside crypto stability. Debate over whether money is finally rotating away from US mega caps into Europe and EM. Private markets face pressure as private equity and credit marks come under scrutiny. Discussion on handling deeply losing positions and dividend warnings.

European markets are powering higher while US bonds stay surprisingly calm. The team probes whether abundant liquidity and AI-driven productivity are keeping inflation in check. They debate the silver short-squeeze chatter and walk through portfolio positioning that favors Europe, emerging markets and cyclicals. AI is used live to measure portfolio volatility and spotlight risks that could topple the rally.

This week on The Art of Investing, Rich McDonald, Mark “Spice” Holden and Chris “CJ” Fellingham return after an intriguing week in markets to debate a major shift in positioning.With Japan surging, emerging markets breaking higher, software stocks wobbling and AI disruption accelerating, the team asks a big question: Are we rotating from tech into old-world value, and is private equity the next risk?Expect macro insight, portfolio reshuffling, and a full breakdown of where capital is moving next.This Week’s Highlights🇯🇵 Japan BreakoutA landslide election victory fuels fiscal stimulus hopes. The Nikkei jumps nearly 9% on the week, lifting the portfolio sharply.💻 Software ShockA small AI tax tool sparks a broader sell-off across software, wealth management and private equity-linked names. Is this the start of margin compression?🏦 The 100-Year Bond WarningAlphabet issues a 100-year bond, massively oversubscribed. CJ calls it a red flag for complacency in credit markets.🪙 Crypto Contrarian Signal?Bitcoin weakens again, but ultra-bearish headlines may suggest positioning is stretched.🌍 Europe & Emerging Markets StrengthEuro Stoxx indices hit highs as investors rotate away from expensive US tech into industrial and value-heavy regions.🇬🇧 UK Politics & GiltsPolitical uncertainty continues, reinforcing caution on long-dated UK bonds.Portfolio Snapshot: Week 26Weekly performance: +1.62%Total return since inception: +16.86%Top Performers🥇 iShares Nikkei 225 ETF: +8.5% 🥈 BlackRock World Mining Trust: +5.2% 🥉 iShares Core MSCI EM IMI ETF: +3.2%Underperformers📉 WisdomTree Copper ETF: +0.3% 📉 iShares UK Gilts 0–5yr ETF: +0.3% 📉 Cash: +0.1%Despite broad gains across equities, Japan and mining stocks drove the bulk of weekly performance, while defensive assets lagged as risk appetite improved.Big Questions the Team Debate• Is AI about to compress software margins?• Are private equity valuations vulnerable?• Is Japan Thatcher… or Liz Truss?• Are we early in a rotation toward Europe and EM?• Is extreme negativity on crypto a contrarian buy signal?What You’ll Learn✔ Why markets “travel” before they arrive✔ How fiscal stimulus drives equity multiples✔ Why 100-year bonds can signal complacency✔ The difference between AI hype and AI implementation✔ How to rotate portfolios without increasing overall risk📈 Download the full Portfolio Performance SlidesView the portfolio breakdown: here📧 Get in touch: theartofinvesting@ig.comSubscribe for weekly investing insight and to follow the live portfolio in real time.DisclaimerThis podcast is provided for educational and informational purposes only. The content presented is not intended as personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular securities or investments. All discussions regarding the model portfolio are illustrative and for educational purposes.Your capital is at risk. The value of shares, ETFs and ETCs can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in.February IncentiveGet up to £3000 when you transfer your ISA to IG.Earn 1% cashback up to £300k when you transfer your ISA before 5th April.Use Promo Code ISAPODCASTNew share dealing customers only. Offer available 31st Jan to 5th April 26. T&Cs apply.📋T&Cs :www.ig.com/uk/transfer-1-percent-cashback-feb-26

This week on The Art of Investing, Rich McDonald and Mark “Spice” Holden are joined by JP Smith for a wide-ranging and timely discussion on one of the most volatile weeks markets have seen in months.With gold and silver suffering brutal flash crashes, crypto tumbling, US tech rotating hard, and a surprise nomination for the next Fed Chair rattling liquidity expectations, the team unpack what’s really going on beneath the surface, and how investors can spot early warning signs before markets move fast.From AI capex concerns and stretched US valuations to volatility indicators, liquidity conditions and portfolio protection, this episode is a masterclass in navigating late-cycle markets.This Week’s Market Highlights📉 Gold & Silver Flash CrashPrecious metals suffer violent reversals as margin hikes, positioning pressure and liquidity fears collide.💻 Tech Rotation AcceleratesUS software and AI leaders sell off sharply as markets reassess capex spending and future returns.🔄 Money Rotates, Not FleesCapital flows out of mega-cap tech into small- and mid-cap US equities, Europe and Japan.🪙 Crypto Volatility ReturnsBitcoin slides sharply, dragging crypto-linked equities with it, highlighting broken correlations with gold.🏦 Fed Chair ShockTrump nominates Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair, spooking markets with fears of tighter liquidity and less QE.📊 Volatility Back on the RadarThe VIX becomes a key signal once again, with the team explaining how professionals actually use it.Portfolio SnapshotWeekly performance: –1.1%Total return since inception: +15.24%Top Performers 🥇 iShares MSCI India ETF: +5.0% 🥈 iShares Core FTSE 100 ETF: +2.5% 🥉 WisdomTree Copper ETF: +1.0%Underperformers 📉 VanEck Crypto & Blockchain Innovators ETF: –21.3% 📉 BlackRock World Mining Trust: –9.4% 📉 Invesco EQQQ NASDAQ-100 ETF: –3.1%Key Portfolio Decision🔄 Reducing US Mega-Cap ExposureSold half of the Nasdaq position (–2.5%)Reallocated into US small caps via the Russell 2000Why?Small- and mid-cap companies are better positioned to benefit if economic activity broadens and rate cuts resume later this year.Updated US exposure now favours diversification over concentration.What Investors Learn in This Episode✔️ Why gold and silver can fall fast, even in bull markets✔️ How margin changes and liquidity shocks trigger violent moves✔️ Why AI capex is now being treated as a risk, not a reward✔️ How professionals use the VIX to manage risk✔️ The difference between a healthy rotation and a market breakdown✔️ When cash and short-dated bonds become powerful tools✔️ Why small caps may be the next phase of the US cycle📈 Download the full Portfolio Performance SlidesView the portfolio breakdown: here📧 Get in touch: theartofinvesting@ig.comSubscribe for weekly market insight and to follow the live portfolio in real time.DisclaimerThis podcast is provided for educational and informational purposes only. The content presented is not intended as personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular securities or investments. All discussions regarding the model portfolio are illustrative and for educational purposes.Your capital is at risk. The value of shares, ETFs and ETCs can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in.February IncentiveGet up to £3000 when you transfer your ISA to IG.Earn 1% cashback up to £300k when you transfer your ISA before 5th April.Use Promo Code ISAPODCASTNew share dealing customers only. Offer available 31st Jan to 5th April 26. T&Cs apply.📋T&Cs :www.ig.com/uk/transfer-1-percent-cashback-feb-26

This week on The Art of Investing, Rich McDonald, Mark “Spice” Holden and Chris Fellingham are joined by JP Smith, veteran emerging markets strategist and former Chief Global Strategist at Pictet, for a deep dive into the forces shaping global markets, and where investors may be underestimating risk.From Russia’s 1998 crisis to China’s governance problem, US dollar fragility and the future of emerging markets, this episode blends hard market insight with frontline experience from one of the world’s most seasoned emerging markets voices.Expect history, geopolitics, sharp disagreement, and a rare behind-the-scenes look at how market crises really unfold.This Week’s Highlights:🌍 Emerging Markets in FocusWhy emerging markets have surged, and why today’s emerging markets index looks nothing like the one investors remember.🇷🇺 Lessons From RussiaJP recounts calling the 1998 Russian crisis early, and what investors consistently miss before major blow-ups.🇨🇳 China’s Governance ProblemDilution, state intervention and why earnings haven’t matched economic growth.💵 The Dollar DebateIs US dollar weakness structural, or just noise? A heated discussion on debt, politics and confidence.🏦 Central Banks & CredibilityFrom Japan’s bond market intervention to the Fed’s independence under pressure.⚠️ Tail Risks Are RisingWhy gold, silver and commodities may be signalling something markets are ignoring.Portfolio Snapshot:Weekly performance: +0.1%Total return since inception: +16.4%Top Performers (WoW): 🥇 BlackRock World Mining Trust: +4.5% 🥈 iShares S&P 500 GBP Hedged ETF: +1.7% 🥉 Vanguard FTSE 250 ETF: +1.5%Underperformers: 💷 Cash: +0.1% 📉 WisdomTree Copper ETF: –0.3% 🇮🇳 iShares MSCI India ETF: –2.6%Big Questions the Team Debate• Are emerging markets finally investable again, or just riding the AI cycle?• Is China uninvestable, misunderstood… or both?• Could the US start behaving like an emerging market politically?• Is gold a warning sign or simply reflecting dollar weakness?• Should investors hedge tail risks more aggressively?What You’ll Learn✔️ How market crises actually develop on the ground✔️ Why governance matters more than growth✔️ How dollar weakness feeds through to emerging markets assets✔️ Why diversification is back in focus✔️ How professionals think about risk when markets look “fine”📈 Download the full Portfolio Performance SlidesView the portfolio breakdown: here📧 Get in touch: theartofinvesting@ig.comSubscribe for weekly market insight and to follow the live portfolio in real time.DisclaimerThis podcast is provided for educational and informational purposes only. The content presented is not intended as personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular securities or investments. All discussions regarding the model portfolio are illustrative and for educational purposes.Your capital is at risk. The value of shares, ETFs and ETCs can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in.February IncentiveGet up to £3000 when you transfer your ISA to IG.Earn 1% cashback up to £300k when you transfer your ISA before 5th April.Use Promo Code ISAPODCASTNew share dealing customers only. Offer available 31st Jan to 5th April 26. T&Cs apply.📋T&Cs :www.ig.com/uk/transfer-1-percent-cashback-feb-26

This week, Rich McDonald, Mark “Spice” Holden and Chris Fellingham unpack one of the most volatile macro weeks of the year, from Japan’s bond market shock to Trump’s Davos comments, rising geopolitical tension, and a sharp shift in momentum across assets.With Japanese yields spiking to multi-decade highs, markets wobbling on Greenland headlines, and gold once again leading the leaderboard, the team debate whether this is a temporary scare… or the early warning signs of something bigger. Crucially, they also make a major portfolio decision, raising cash and reassessing risk after a strong run of returns.Expect macro depth, proper portfolio debate, and a real-time look at how professional investors react when markets move fast.This Week’s Highlights:🇯🇵 Japan Bond Shock40-year Japanese government bond yields spike, triggering global bond and equity volatility.🌍 Geopolitics ReturnsGreenland, NATO tensions and Trump’s Davos comments briefly rattle markets before a sharp relief rally.📉 Momentum RotatesGold and mining stocks surge while crypto and copper lag as capital chases safety and trend.🪙 Crypto vs GoldBitcoin slides while gold hits new highs, reigniting the “digital gold” debate.🏦 Central Bank PowerThe Bank of Japan draws a clear line in the sand, reminding markets who’s really in control.Portfolio Snapshot:Weekly performance: –0.7%Total return since inception: +15.5%Top Performers (WoW)🥇 iShares Physical Gold ETC: +4.83%🥈 BlackRock World Mining Trust: +2.54%🥉 iShares Core MSCI EM IMI ETF: +1.14%Underperformers (WoW)📉 VanEck Crypto & Blockchain Innovators ETF: –4.66%📉 WisdomTree Copper ETF: –4.15%📉 iShares MSCI India ETF: –3.49% Big Decisions This Week:🔄 Raising CashThe team reduce exposure to gold and US equities, moving 10% of the portfolio into cash to reassess risk after strong gains.💬 Live DebateShould profits be locked in after a big run, or is stepping aside the biggest risk of all?What You’ll Learn:✔️ Why Japan’s bond market matters far beyond Tokyo✔️ How central banks really control market stress✔️ Why momentum dominates during uncertain periods✔️ When raising cash is smart, and when it’s costly✔️ How professionals manage portfolios during fast-moving macro shocks📈 Download the full Portfolio Performance SlidesView the portfolio breakdown: here📧 Get in touch: theartofinvesting@ig.comSubscribe for weekly investing insight and to follow the live portfolio in real time.Disclaimer:This podcast is provided for educational and informational purposes only. The content presented is not intended as personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular securities or investments. All discussions regarding the model portfolio are illustrative and for educational purposes.Your capital is at risk. The value of shares, ETFs and ETCs can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in.January IncentiveMove your investment portfolio to IG and you’ll get up to £2,000 cashback. Simply open a general investment account, ISA, or SIPP by 30 January and get 1% cashback on your transferred investments.1% cashback on the total Qualifying Transfers initiated between 1 January and 30 January 2026The maximum payout is £2,000.Your capital is at risk.  New customers only. Offer valid until 30/01/2026 on ISA, GIA or SIPP accounts. T&Cs apply.📋T&Cs: https://www.ig.com/uk/transfer-1-percent-cashback-jan-26