The Art of Investing

War, Oil and Market Volatility: The Iran Conflict Explained

Mar 6, 2026
J.P. Smith, an emerging markets and Middle East expert, provides concise historical and geopolitical context on Iran. He discusses recent strikes, regional scenarios and how oil shocks can ripple into inflation and rates. Conversations cover tail risks to shipping and gas, comparisons with past Middle East crises, and potential market and portfolio implications.
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INSIGHT

Israel Stocks Rally As Nuclear Risk Repriced

  • Israel's stock market jumped after strikes as investors priced a reduced nuclear threat to the country's economy.
  • Tel Aviv 35 rose 4.6% on Monday while crypto and Bitcoin unexpectedly rallied, showing unusual cross-asset moves during the shock.
INSIGHT

Weekend Markets Can Price Shock Differently

  • Weekend trading showed oil spiking 16% while US equities only fell ~1%, revealing weekend markets can price large risk moves differently.
  • Rich McDonald noted traders could act on weekend price gaps and IG offers markets to trade them.
ADVICE

Use Diversification To Limit Shock Losses

  • Diversify into assets with low recent correlation to reduce drawdowns during shocks.
  • The portfolio fell only 2.1% on the week and crypto exposure (VanEck) was up 4% after Bitcoin rallied 7%.
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