The Art of Investing

War, Oil Shocks & Private Credit Cracks – Are Markets Too Calm?

9 snips
Mar 13, 2026
They unpack a sudden oil shock and how rising energy prices ripple into inflation expectations and central bank timing. Liquidity worries in private credit and semi-liquid funds get scrutiny without naming outcomes. Sector rotation and consumer stress explain why software and travel diverge. They debate why markets stay oddly calm despite geopolitical shocks and changing correlations across assets.
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INSIGHT

Oil Shocks Feed Inflation Fast

  • Oil price spikes quickly raise inflation expectations, roughly +0.2–0.4% inflation per $10 rise in oil.
  • Mark Holden noted a ~$30 oil rise could add ~1% to inflation in coming months, affecting central bank plans.
INSIGHT

Private Credit Liquidity Is Under Strain

  • Private credit and private equity face mounting liquidity and mark-to-market stress as redemptions rise and asset marks look optimistic.
  • Examples: Cliffwater limited withdrawals after 14% requests and Clear Lake flagged questionable Blue Owl marks.
ADVICE

Avoid Semi Liquid Private Fund Promises

  • Avoid treating semi-liquid products as liquid; don’t expect quick redemptions from funds holding illiquid private assets.
  • Chris warned regulators let illiquid assets into semi-liquid products, referencing Woodford and property unit trusts.
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