Independent Thinking

Grégoire Roos, director for Europe, Russia and Eurasia at Chatham House, brings regional security insight. David Lubin, senior research fellow on global economy and finance, focuses on energy and inflation. They debate the scale of the Iran conflict, risks to energy and other supply chains, Europe and US policy limits, shifting geopolitical winners, and how longer-term spending and green investment might be affected.

Neil Quilliam, Middle East specialist on Gulf and Iran dynamics. Heather Hurlburt, US foreign policy and Washington politics analyst. Dr Christopher Sabatini, Latin America and energy geopolitics expert. They debate Iran’s regional strike capacity and Gulf security fallout. They examine transatlantic reluctance, US-Israel coordination strains, global energy shocks and wider risks from Venezuela to Cuba.

James Kynge, China tech strategist, and Laurel Rapp, US policy and national security expert, dive into the Anthropic–Pentagon standoff. They discuss corporate red lines versus military access, how China compels AI support for the state, global AI governance being written in contracts, and the race to embed AI across economies and battlefields.

Laurel Rapp, expert on US foreign policy; General Sir Richard Barrons, retired senior military officer; and Sanam Vakil, specialist in Iranian politics. They debate US–Israeli strike aims and limits of air campaigns. They describe life inside Iran after strikes and how the IRGC shapes succession. They weigh risks to US domestic politics and regional security shifts.

Creon Butler, director of Chatham House’s Global Economy and Finance Programme, gives economic analysis of tariffs. Heather Hurlburt, a Washington-based Chatham House analyst, explains political and policy drivers. They discuss why tariffs appeal to Trump, legal and administrative headaches from the Supreme Court ruling, revenue versus deficit tradeoffs, and how global supply chains and partner responses may shift.

Negotiations to end the Russia-Ukraine war do not appear to have made significant progress. In the meantime, the focus of US President Donald Trump's 'lighthouse diplomacy' appears to have switched to Iran. Chatham House analysts discuss the state of the talks, and whether Europe will step up to provide the weapons and military support that Ukraine needs. They also examine how the Russia-Ukraine conflict fits into the wider superpower competition between the US, Russia and China. Joining host Bronwen Maddox are Grégoire Roos, director of Chatham House's Europe, Russia and Eurasia programmes; Orysia Lutsevych, head of the Ukraine Forum; and Natalie Sabanadze, Senior Research Fellow with the Russia and Eurasia Programme. This episode comes as we look ahead to two major upcoming Chatham House events: a conversation with General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine's ambassador to the UK, marking four years since Russia's full-scale invasion, and our annual Security and Defence conference. Both events are now fully booked for in-person attendance, but audiences will be able to watch General Zaluzhnyi's appearance and some of the defence conference events online. Full details are available on our website: https://www.chathamhouse.org/events/upcoming Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by Stephen Farrell and Sara Seth. Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you find your podcasts.

Grégoire Roos, director of Europe and Russia and Eurasia Programmes at Chatham House, offers expert analysis on European geopolitics. He contrasts Marco Rubio’s softer tone with last year’s shock, argues the substance may be unchanged, and explores defence-tech innovation, Ukraine’s leadership and resilience, and Europe’s response to rising Chinese competition.

Grégoire Roos, director of Europe and Russia & Eurasia programmes at Chatham House, offers comparative European takes. Olivia O'Sullivan, director of the UK in the World programme at Chatham House, focuses on British politics and foreign policy. They discuss whether Britain’s frequent leadership changes signal deeper governance problems. They compare UK strains with other European democracies and debate political fragmentation, voting reform, and tough fiscal and security choices.

Dr Christopher Sabatini, Latin America expert on security and governance. Laurel Rapp, analyst of US foreign policy in the Americas. They dissect the Donroe Doctrine and how control of oil and finance shapes a new U.S. playbook. They probe risks to Venezuela, the prospects for Rubio’s Cuba plans, and the complex politics around Haiti and regional stability.

Dr Yu Jie, a Chatham House China specialist on elite politics and military shifts, and Ben Bland, head of the Asia-Pacific Programme, discuss opaque leadership moves in Beijing. They cover military purges, risks to PLA modernization, UK policy trade-offs between trade and security, renewables and infrastructure concerns, and how London can navigate pressures from rival superpowers.