Independent Thinking Oil, regime change, and what's next in Trump's MAGA playbook?
14 snips
Feb 6, 2026 
Dr Christopher Sabatini, Latin America expert on security and governance. Laurel Rapp, analyst of US foreign policy in the Americas. They dissect the Donroe Doctrine and how control of oil and finance shapes a new U.S. playbook. They probe risks to Venezuela, the prospects for Rubio’s Cuba plans, and the complex politics around Haiti and regional stability.
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Don't Assume Smooth Removal Equals Reform
- Expect uncertain timelines and unclear benchmarks for stabilization and democratic transition in Venezuela.
- Policymakers should avoid assuming a smooth leadership change guarantees long-term democratic outcomes.
Venezuela's Oil Hurts Russia's Price Leverage
- Restoring Venezuelan oil output will pressure global oil prices and complicate Russia's ability to profit under sanctions.
- Even a gradual return of Venezuelan oil affects international energy markets and sanctioned actors.
Deportations Signal Politics, Not Repatriation
- Many Venezuelans and elites are unlikely to return despite economic improvement and repatriation efforts.
- The Trump administration plans visible deportations to signal toughness to the MAGA base rather than trigger mass return.