Independent Thinking Iran war: regional shock or global crisis?
Mar 27, 2026
Grégoire Roos, director for Europe, Russia and Eurasia at Chatham House, brings regional security insight. David Lubin, senior research fellow on global economy and finance, focuses on energy and inflation. They debate the scale of the Iran conflict, risks to energy and other supply chains, Europe and US policy limits, shifting geopolitical winners, and how longer-term spending and green investment might be affected.
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Energy Vulnerability Is Now Networked
- Modern energy dependence is less about intensity and more about networked vulnerabilities like choke points and financialised energy.
- Grégoire Roos warns that supply-chain links and choke points (e.g., Strait of Hormuz) amplify systemic risk despite lower energy intensity.
Stagflation Risks From Broader Supply Restrictions
- The crisis is producing stagflationary pressures: simultaneous growth hits and rising prices.
- David Lubin notes supply restrictions (energy, helium, ammonia, aluminium) are causing price rises and reduced activity in different countries.
Winners And Losers Depend On Fiscal Capacity
- Impact varies by country: low-income, energy-inefficient importers face deeper stag problems while wealthy importers can protect households.
- Examples: India, Philippines, Pakistan seeing closures; Japan and Korea can subsidize households.