Brussels Sprouts

While the world's attention has turned to the war with Iran, the war in Ukraine continues. Russia has seemingly kicked off its spring offensive, but a meaningful breakthrough remains unlikely. Moscow has increased the tempo of its operations, relying more heavily on mechanized and motorized assaults, an approach that is typical for this time of year. Yet last year's experience suggests limited prospects for success. Despite a similar surge last year, Russian forces achieved only marginal gains while incurring significant equipment losses, ultimately forcing Russian forces to relatively quickly return to smaller scale infiltration tactics. Meanwhile, the war in Iran will affect dynamics in Ukraine. The most pressing concern for Ukraine is its air and missile defense. Russia is expanding production of ballistic missiles and improving their effectiveness. Kyiv remains heavily dependent on U.S.-provided systems to intercept these threats, with no real viable alternative currently available. The United States is rapidly expending these resources in the Middle East. And the longer that conflict continues, the more it is likely to exacerbate Ukraine's vulnerability. Financially, Russia is also benefiting from the war with Iran. Higher oil prices and the easing of US sanctions are pumping higher revenue into Russia's coffers. Although Ukraine is taking bold steps to disrupt Russia's energy exports, a prolonged period of higher energy prices will, at a minimum, alleviate the economic strain that Moscow was feeling earlier this year. To discuss these dynamics and much more, Brussels Sprouts is very happy to welcome Elina Ribakova and Ambassador Bill Taylor to the show this week. Ambassador Bill Taylor is a distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center and former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine. Elina Ribakova is vice president for foreign policy at the Kyiv School of Economics and a non-resident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Jeremy Shapiro, research director at ECFR focused on U.S. foreign policy, and Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook, EVP at the Bertelsmann Foundation on European policy, discuss Europe's cautious reaction to U.S.-Iran tensions. They explore why many leaders call it "not our war." They debate Europe’s dependence on the U.S., suggestions for naval escorts and hedging, and long-term shifts in transatlantic ties.

Bruno Tertrais, expert on French nuclear strategy, and Claudia Major, specialist in transatlantic deterrence, discuss Macron’s shift to a larger French arsenal and a new “forward deterrence” partnership with seven European countries. They unpack the timing, Franco‑German ties, coordination with NATO, and how conventional forces and crisis planning factor into Europe’s changing deterrence landscape.

Julien Barnes-Dacey, European Council on Foreign Relations strategist on Iran and MENA policy. Steven Erlanger, NYT chief diplomatic correspondent in Europe. They discuss Europe's divided reactions, the politics of allowing base access, strains in U.S.-Europe relations, energy and refugee risks, and how the conflict could reshape support for Ukraine and European strategic choices.

This week marks the four-year anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Brussels Sprouts wanted to mark this somber milestone with a look at the conflict and the ongoing efforts to secure a durable end to the war. Even as the war in Ukraine shows no signs of an imminent end, the international community, and the allies in Europe in particular, have been working on the foundations of a credible security guarantee for Ukraine once the fighting ends. Part of this line of effort has been the proposed creation of a multinational force, which could be deployed to Ukraine once the hostilities cease to serve as a visible reassurance force. Perhaps more critically, the multinational force could help Ukraine regenerate its military forces and strengthen its own ability to deter further Russian aggression. Led by the United Kingdom and France, the multinational force has the potential to be a key pillar of Ukraine's future security, yet there are lingering questions about what the force aims to do and how it will function. The UK Minister for the Armed Forces Al Carns joins Brussels Sprouts to share insights on the multinational force, the state of the war at this four-year mark, and UK views on the changing dynamics in the European security landscape. Alistair Carns has served as the UK minister for the armed forces since September 2025 and as a member of Parliament since 2024. Before holding elected office, he served as an active-duty Royal Marine officer for 25 years. 

This week’s episode of Brussels Sprouts picks up in the aftermath of the Munich Security Conference. The U.S. tone at Munich was notably more conciliatory than last year, as U.S. officials sought to calm anxieties. Secretary of State Marco Rubio received a standing ovation as he called European allies America’s oldest friends and cited the history of mutual defense from Korea to Afghanistan. But for many Europeans, the rhetoric did little to dispel deeper doubts about the trajectory of the transatlantic relationship.  Meanwhile, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi was also at Munich, stepping onto the main stage against the backdrop of transatlantic strain. Wang used his presence to position China as a responsible global actor and a stabilizing force in a fragmented world. Notably, the sharp European rhetoric toward Beijing that defined previous conferences was more muted. As tensions with Washington have mounted, several European leaders, including Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and United Kingdom Prime Minister Keir Starmer, have also traveled to Beijing. Geopolitical currents in both Europe and the Indo-Pacific are rapidly changing, and there is no one better to talk about these developments than a former ambassador to both China and NATO: Ambassador Nick Burns.  Nick Burns is a professor of diplomacy and international relations at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government. Previously, he was a career foreign service officer and served as U.S. ambassador to China from 2021–2025 and as ambassador to NATO from 2001–2005. 

Mike Kofman, a Russian military analyst, and Franz-Stefan Gady, a defense analyst and wargame participant, discuss whether Europe could defend itself with far less U.S. presence. They walk through a 2026 wargame where Russian forces moved rapidly, examine operational gaps like enablers and logistics, and debate political will, timelines, and what Europe would need to shoulder greater defense responsibilities.

Ivo Daalder, former U.S. ambassador to NATO and Belfer Center fellow, and Barry Posen, MIT professor of international relations, discuss Carney’s warning about a ruptured international order. They debate whether Europe can build credible military and economic autonomy, how NATO might be Europeanized, and what political will and burden-sharing would actually require. Tense, timely, and forward-looking.

It has been a tumultuous month in the transatlantic alliance. This week, President Donald Trump’s demands to take control of Greenland reached a fever pitch. On Sunday, President Trump threatened major tariffs on Denmark, France, the United Kingdom, Germany, and a host of other American allies in Europe to coerce them to accept his demands for U.S. control over Greenland. For many European allies, Trump crossed a line, and allies raised the prospect of using their anticoercion instrument against the United States. Though Trump posted on Wednesday afternoon that he had negotiated a “framework deal” to avert the crisis with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, much damage was already done. Meanwhile, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney gave a speech at the World Economic Forum annual meeting at Davos declaring the end of the era of decisive U.S. global leadership, Trump launched the Board of Peace for Gaza—to which he invited Russian President Vladimir Putin—and Putin ordered more missile and drone strikes on Ukraine’s capital and critical infrastructure, in what has been one of the harshest winters in Ukraine in recent memory. Less than a month into the new year, it’s hard to avoid the feeling that we are in the worst period the Transatlantic Alliance has seen since World War II.  To help us make sense of recent events and to put this crisis into historical context, we're very happy to welcome Jim Goldgeier and Charles Kupchan to Brussels Sprouts.  Jim Goldgeier is a research affiliate at Stanford University and a professor of international relations at American University, and he worked on the National Security Council under the Clinton administration.  Charles Kupchan is a senior fellow with the Council on Foreign Relations and a professor of international relations at Georgetown University. He also served on the National Security Council under Presidents Clinton and Obama. 

Sophia Besch, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, and Christian Mölling, director at the European Policy Centre, dive into Europe’s evolving defense landscape. They discuss the urgent need for European nations to bolster their militaries, especially in light of wavering U.S. support. Bringing fresh perspectives, they debate the feasibility of rearmament as a deterrent against Putin and the challenges of national fragmentation versus collective action. They also explore Germany's potential leadership role and the future of NATO amid changing global dynamics.