
Brussels Sprouts Carney's Challenge: Can Europe Take the Reins of NATO?
Feb 6, 2026
Ivo Daalder, former U.S. ambassador to NATO and Belfer Center fellow, and Barry Posen, MIT professor of international relations, discuss Carney’s warning about a ruptured international order. They debate whether Europe can build credible military and economic autonomy, how NATO might be Europeanized, and what political will and burden-sharing would actually require. Tense, timely, and forward-looking.
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Rupture, Not Transition
- Mark Carney's Davos speech captured a broader realization that allies can no longer rely on guaranteed U.S. leadership.
- Barry R. Posen argues allies must diversify partnerships and build resilience against uncertain U.S. commitment.
Election Signals Enduring Uncertainty
- Barry R. Posen says Trump's election plus weak bipartisan pushback signal a durable change in U.S. alliance reliability.
- He urges Europeans to invest in resilience, alternatives, and diverse coalitions rather than hope for U.S. continuity.
Fill Forces And Harden Deterrence
- Fill hollowed militaries with weapons, munitions, and personnel and increase production capacity quickly if needed.
- Develop credible nuclear signaling and regional deterrent postures so adversaries don't exploit a U.S. gap.

