Europe’s View on Operation Epic Fury

11 snips

Mar 5, 2026

Guest

Julien Barnes-Dacey

Guest

Steven Erlanger

Julien Barnes-Dacey, European Council on Foreign Relations strategist on Iran and MENA policy. Steven Erlanger, NYT chief diplomatic correspondent in Europe. They discuss Europe's divided reactions, the politics of allowing base access, strains in U.S.-Europe relations, energy and refugee risks, and how the conflict could reshape support for Ukraine and European strategic choices.

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INSIGHT

Implicit European Backing Despite Legal Doubts

Many European capitals implicitly lined up behind the U.S. after the strikes despite public caution and legal concerns.
Julien Barnes-Dacey pointed to German and French rhetoric leaning toward regime change while public statements stressed diplomacy and de-escalation.

INSIGHT

Ukraine Drives European Calculus On Iran

Ukraine is Europe's strategic priority and shapes its calculations about Iran.
Steven Erlanger warned Europeans fear U.S. attention and supplies will shift to Iran, undermining aid and munitions for Kyiv.

INSIGHT

Middle East Action Could Weaken European Position In Ukraine

Helping the U.S. in a risky Middle East campaign may worsen Europe's ability to support Ukraine and its own interests.
Julien Barnes-Dacey highlighted energy price spikes and diverted munitions as direct harms helping Putin.

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On February 28, the United States launched Operation Epic Fury, a major military campaign against Iran carried out alongside Israeli strikes. The opening wave targeted Iranian command and control nodes, missile forces, and military infrastructure across multiple cities and included a decapitation strike that killed the supreme leader. The conflict quickly spread beyond Iran itself. Tehran has retaliated with missile and drone strikes across the Gulf, hitting U.S. and allied targets in countries including Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, and even striking the British military base in Cyprus.

From Europe, the response has been sharply divided. Spain’s government has rejected what it called the “unilateral military action” by the United States and Israel and denied U.S. forces the use of Spanish bases for the operations. Sitting with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in the White House, President Donald Trump slammed Spain’s position and threatened to cut off trade with Madrid. And Spain hasn’t been Trump's only target—Trump has been highly critical of UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer. After Starmer said the UK did not support regime change from the sky and initially blocked the use of UK bases for strikes, Trump said of his counterpart, “this is not Winston Churchill we are dealing with,” and that the special relationship between the United States and the UK is “not what it was.” Across European capitals, officials are also bracing for the consequences: fears of a new refugee crisis, evacuations of citizens from countries across the Gulf, higher energy prices, cyber and terrorism threats, and concerns that a widening Middle East conflict could further strain already tight munitions supplies needed to support Ukraine.

To discuss all this and much more, Brussels Sprouts welcomes Steven Erlanger and Julian Barnes-Dacey.

Steven Erlanger is the chief diplomatic correspondent in Europe for The New York Times and is based in Berlin.

Julien Barnes-Dacey is the director of the Middle East & North Africa program at the European Council on Foreign Relations.