Moody's Talks - Inside Economics

Welcome to a bonus episode of Inside Economics. This is a recording that took place between Mark Zandi and our most recent podcast guest, Daleep Singh at the Aspen Ideas Festival a couple of months ago. Questions or Comments, please email us at InsideEconomics@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Daleep Singh, Vice Chairman and Global Chief Economist of investment manager PGIM, joins the Inside Economics team to discuss the seismic shifts occurring in the global economy and financial system. The unipolar global economy, which the U.S. dominated for decades after the collapse of the Soviet Union, has given way to the old normal, a world much like that of the Gilded Age that only ended with World War I. Listen in to hear if Daleep believes this time will be different. Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at InsideEconomics@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The hosts explore the surprising absence of a November jobs report but delve into the latest labor market data. They debate the implications of growing affordability concerns and how households are really coping financially. A discussion on the disparities between small and large firm hiring trends emerges, alongside insights into the influence of immigration policies. With student loan pressures rising and consumer sentiment showing extremes, the team questions the Federal Reserve's independence and its impact on interest rates.

Scott Hoyt, an economist and retail specialist, dives into the gloomy state of U.S. consumer sentiment this holiday season. He discusses disappointing retail sales trends and factors contributing to consumer softness, like inflation and housing. The conversation takes a turn towards debt burdens, highlighting inequality among households. With a modest holiday sales forecast, the panel examines how a stronger prior year complicates growth comparisons. They also tackle a listener question on wealth inequality, emphasizing its impacts on housing and education.

Alan Blinder, a renowned economics professor and former Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve, shares his insights on various pressing topics. He explores the potential of AI to drive unexpected GDP growth while warning of a bubble in equity markets reminiscent of the Wile E. Coyote metaphor, highlighting the unpredictability of market crashes. Blinder also discusses the implications of AI on job displacement, education reforms, and the risks to Federal Reserve independence amid political pressures. His thoughts on immigration policy further underline critical labor shortages.

Matt Collier, a savvy economist from Moody's Analytics, joins the discussion on the aftermath of the government shutdown and its surprisingly mild impact on the economy. The conversation shifts to the Trump administration's actions aimed at improving affordability, including the rollback of tariffs on everyday items like pasta and bananas. The hosts also unveil a new segment addressing listener questions, touching on everything from job market implications to potential housing finance reforms. Tune in for some insightful economic analysis!

Discussing the lack of official labor market data, the hosts explore alternative labor indicators and the implications of a potential federal government shutdown. They analyze trends in unemployment claims and job cuts, suggesting that AI may primarily impact overseas jobs. Delving into private payroll measures, they estimate future hiring will be weak. As travel disruptions loom, they ponder the broader economic ripple effects and the challenges ahead in data recovery, highlighting how AI can enhance rather than replace economic forecasting.

Chris Lafakis, Director of Economic Research at Moody's Analytics, explores the economic impact of hurricanes. He discusses Hurricane Melissa's effects on Jamaica, highlighting damage and economic losses due to low insurance coverage. Lafakis also dives into a study predicting catastrophic consequences for Miami's economy from a severe hurricane, detailing GDP declines and property value shocks. The conversation touches on the importance of federal aid and the role of catastrophe bonds in managing insurance gaps, making for a compelling discussion on disaster preparedness.

Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors and former Federal Reserve economist, joins Matt Colyar, Assistant Director at Moody's Analytics, for an insightful discussion on the current economic landscape. They analyze the recent Consumer Price Index data and its impact on inflation, labor markets, and stock valuations. Claudia highlights risks such as the effects of immigration policy on productivity and financial strains on lower-income households. The duo also considers the implications of AI on the economy and potential systemic risks in private credit.

Colleague Matt Colyar joins Cris and Mark on the podcast to discuss the prospects for inflation and the threat posed by subprime consumer credit problems to the banking system and broader economy. They discuss all of this through the prism of concerns raised by clients in their travels this past week: Mark was out West, Matt in Texas, and Cris in Bermuda. Guest: Matt Colyar - Assistan Director, Economist, Moody's AnalyticsHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn  Questions or Comments, please email us at InsideEconomics@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.