Moody's Talks - Inside Economics No Jobs Friday: The Sequel
Nov 7, 2025
Discussing the lack of official labor market data, the hosts explore alternative labor indicators and the implications of a potential federal government shutdown. They analyze trends in unemployment claims and job cuts, suggesting that AI may primarily impact overseas jobs. Delving into private payroll measures, they estimate future hiring will be weak. As travel disruptions loom, they ponder the broader economic ripple effects and the challenges ahead in data recovery, highlighting how AI can enhance rather than replace economic forecasting.
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Private Data Suggests Flat To Slight Job Loss
- Private signals (ADP + Reveglio) imply near-zero private payroll gains, and federal payroll losses likely push total nonfarm payrolls negative.
- Moody's team estimates about -15,000 total nonfarm payrolls for October after combining sources and accounting for federal cuts.
Labor Market Is Stagnant, Not Booming
- Many private indicators (Indeed job postings, continuing UI claims, ISM employment indexes) point to weakening hiring and wage growth.
- The labor market looks 'punk' — flat to slightly negative — with unemployment slowly rising.
Very Low Job Growth Needed To Stabilize Unemployment
- Break-even payroll growth to keep unemployment stable is very low due to minimal labor-force growth.
- Panelists put break-even at about 25–50K monthly and estimate current growth near zero or slightly negative.