Moody's Talks - Inside Economics A Downer Podcast
Nov 26, 2025
Scott Hoyt, an economist and retail specialist, dives into the gloomy state of U.S. consumer sentiment this holiday season. He discusses disappointing retail sales trends and factors contributing to consumer softness, like inflation and housing. The conversation takes a turn towards debt burdens, highlighting inequality among households. With a modest holiday sales forecast, the panel examines how a stronger prior year complicates growth comparisons. They also tackle a listener question on wealth inequality, emphasizing its impacts on housing and education.
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Retail Sales Showing Fatigue
- September retail sales rose just 0.2% with core sales only 0.1%, and several discretionary categories fell.
- Year-over retail sales were up 4.3%, but real growth after inflation is closer to 2% and looks set to decelerate.
Confidence Has Fallen Sharply
- Conference Board consumer confidence plunged to 88.7 in November driven by a collapse in expectations.
- The drop matches pandemic-era lows and signals weaker planned big-ticket spending.
Aggregate Debt Burdens Are Not Extreme
- Aggregate household debt burdens remain historically low even though total debt is high.
- Pockets like subprime auto and student loans show stress, but broad debt-service ratios sit below 2019 levels.