The Master Investor Podcast with Wilfred Frost

Crypto Winter or Buying Opportunity? Dan Morehead’s 4-Year Outlook

Mar 31, 2026
Dan Morehead, founder and CEO of Pantera Capital and former macro trader at Goldman Sachs and Tiger Management, shares his four-year view on Bitcoin and digital assets. He discusses why crypto may be near a bottom and why it remains an asymmetric trade. Topics include the crypto cycle, stablecoins and regulation, gold versus bitcoin, geopolitical forces driving non-sovereign money, and why institutions may arrive later.
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INSIGHT

Crypto's Predictable Four Year Cycles

  • Crypto follows very regular four-year cycles with tight dispersion between them.
  • Pantera ran models forecasting the August 11th, 2025 peak at $117,542 and observed a typical ~1 year down period after peaks.
INSIGHT

Crypto Is The First 24/7 Risk Off Valve

  • Crypto often acts as the first liquidity source during risk-off shocks because it's a large 24/7 market.
  • Dan notes crypto is ~a $2 trillion market open all day, so it's sold first when sudden shocks occur outside stock trading hours.
INSIGHT

Gold And Bitcoin Share A Debasement Theme

  • Gold and Bitcoin share the debasement trade theme but move independently due to episodic investor attention.
  • Dan says gold surged in 2025 after years of ETF outflows while Bitcoin had seen $80bn inflows earlier, showing separate investor cycles.
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