Explaining the October–May 50% Drawdown

Dan Morehead returns to The Master Investor Podcast for a timely update on why he still believes Bitcoin – and the broader digital asset space – remains “the most asymmetric trade” of his career, even after a 50% drawdown from the cycle peak in October 2025.

The Pantera Capital founder and former Tiger Management and Goldman Sachs macro trader unpacks the current crypto cycle, and why this correction has been milder than past 75–85% busts. He also tells Wilf why he thinks we may already be close to the bottom in terms of level, though maybe not  timing, admitting that it may be another 6-8 months before crypto rallies significantly again.

The discussion ranges from the “debasement trade”; why central banks may have been drawn to buy gold of late but might pick bitcoin in future; the case for stablecoins and why crypto investors should celebrate the regulatory shift in the US even if there is currently a standoff around stablecoin legislation. Dan also explains why he thinks equities and AI in particular is overvalued, especially relative to crypto.

Wilf and Dan discuss what the Iran war means for crypto, including how, in his eyes, it’s yet another factor that will drive the separation of money and state. Dan argues that geopolitical fragmentation, sanctions risk and war are all accelerating the demand for neutral, non-sovereign money that sits outside the traditional banking and Treasury-controlled system.​

This episode is a must-listen for anyone who owns crypto or is considering it for their portfolio.

You can watch the full video on The Master Investor Podcast YouTube channel

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