DTC Podcast Bonus: Revenue Is Lying to You: Planning, Execution and What Actually Drives Growth with Three Ships and Keen's Brand Study
May 6, 2026
Mike Chiasson, a forecasting and decisioning specialist, and Laura Thompson, co-founder of 8-figure Three Ships Beauty, break down planning vs reacting in DTC. They discuss bottom-up channel forecasting, when scenario planning helps, how distribution shapes media efficiency, KPI ownership and weekly cadence, and why revenue is a lagging indicator.
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Forecast From Channel Levers Not Top Level Targets
- Do build bottom-up forecasts from channel-level levers rather than top-down revenue targets.
- Laura models monthly channel metrics (CTR, new customer CAC, CRM revenue) to attribute revenue by channel and spot why targets miss.
Filter Noise Before Reacting To Short Term Aberrations
- Insight: Chasing noisy short-term signals causes harmful reactivity and wasted effort.
- Mike warns teams to define which aberrations merit investigation versus normal variability to avoid paralysis.
Run Weekly KPI Huddles With Threshold Triggers
- Do run a weekly full-team KPI review with strict thresholds to trigger explanations.
- Three Ships meets Mondays; any KPI below 80% or above 120% of forecast requires a short presentation and action notes.