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We surveyed 540+ DTC operators on how they plan and forecast. This episode, we break down the data and see why most brands are stuck reacting. We’re joined by Laura Thompson, co-founder of Three Ships Beauty, one of the few who's figured out how to run a tight, fast, 8-figure brand without drifting into chaos, and Mike Chiasson, Senior Solutions Engineer from Keen Decision Systems, to pressure-test the Three Ships Beauty playbook against the data.
Grab your free copy of the report here: https://www.directtoconsumer.co/thereactiveloopreport
In this episode:
- The biggest gaps in how DTC brands plan
- Why "revenue is a lagging indicator"
- The bottom-up forecasting Three Ships uses
- The KPI ownership system across the whole team
- When scenario planning is worth the time, and when it's just noise
If you’re a DTC operator past $5M who wants to stop reacting and start running a solid plan, this episode is a must listen.
Timestamps
0:00 Planning vs reacting in ecommerce
2:03 Why most brands only plan 1–6 months ahead
4:02 Bottom-up forecasting vs top-down forecasting
6:06 Scenario planning and external market risks
9:02 When media spend actually works harder
11:01 The reactive loop hurting DTC brands
14:03 Why brands over-invest in bottom funnel
15:06 Weekly KPI reviews and forecasting systems
18:02 The danger of reacting to noisy data
20:04 Leading vs lagging indicators in ecommerce
23:02 How talent impacts business performance
24:58 Product launch delays and forecasting pivots
26:53 Scenario planning for tariffs and supply chain risk
31:55 Should brands worry about oil shocks?
35:34 The biggest gap between planning and execution
38:02 KPI systems that drive accountability
42:16 The right way to plan for growth
44:02 Why reactive brands fall behind
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