The Trivium China Podcast Ep 44 - Xi’s make or break moment + USCBC’s Sean Stein on US-China volatility
Oct 24, 2025
Joe Peissel, Lead Macroeconomic Analyst at Trivium China, shares insights on China’s fragile consumer confidence despite a GDP growth of 4.8%. He discusses the impacts of uneven recovery and declining housing markets on consumption. Sean Stein, President of the USCBC, navigates the complexities of U.S.-China business relationships amid volatility. He highlights how the fentanyl issue can foster trust and why firms still value the China market for its speed and innovation, even amidst regulatory challenges.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Property Collapse Is Deep And Long
- Property is the primary drag: new starts and financing are at multi-year lows and prices keep falling.
- Recovery may take years and will likely be uneven across tiers and regions.
Plenum Frames A Make‑Or‑Break Transition
- The 4th Plenum signals a pivot to industry-led growth: industrial upgrading and tech self-reliance top priorities.
- Xi frames the 15th Five-Year Plan as a make-or-break transition to a new development pattern.
Watch The Three Consumption Levers
- Policymakers will pursue three consumption levers: targeted subsidies, expand supply, and raise livelihoods.
- Watch policy details on social security and wage measures to judge effectiveness.