The Trivium China Podcast

Jeremy Stevens, Beijing-based China economist at Standard Bank with 16 years' experience, and Joe Peissel, Trivium's lead macro analyst, unpack recent monthly macro data. They highlight where growth is fragile, why manufacturing and services are unevenly strong, how exports and Africa ties matter, and why the Iran conflict could become a serious stress test for China’s fragile recovery.

Even Pay, head of agricultural, trade, and commodities research, focuses on minerals, energy, and supply chains. Joe Mazur, head of geopolitical research, analyzes China’s foreign policy and strategic moves. They discuss China’s energy and resource security, how decade-long reserves pay off, Beijing’s limited diplomatic levers, regional supply roles, and broader geopolitical risks and opportunities.

Even (Evan) Pei, Trivium director on agriculture, biotech, and health policy — outlines innovation targets for farming and healthcare. Linghao, Shanghai-based analyst specializing in semiconductors and compute — digs into China’s GPU crunch, cloud adoption, and the National Unified Computing Power Network. Corey Combs, head of supply chain and critical minerals research — examines industrial upgrading, upstream/midstream/downstream shifts, and climate-linked industrial policy.

Ilaria Mazzocco, Deputy Director and Senior Fellow at CSIS specializing in Chinese industrial and climate policy. She discusses how China built EV leadership through coordinated industrial policy and private innovation. Short takes on batteries, software platforms, profitability pressures, global investment tensions, cybersecurity rules, and how emerging markets and Europe are responding.

Jude Blanchette, director at RAND’s China Research Center and senior China politics analyst, explains how Beijing frames the unfolding “rupture” in global order. He maps how Chinese leaders scan risks and opportunities, debates Xi’s information flows and decision incentives, and explores Europe’s strategic dilemma and possible U.S.-China dynamics in 2026. Short, sharp, and geopolitically charged.

Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research at Trivium China and seasoned on-the-ground markets analyst, returns from Beijing with vivid observations. He describes a changed vibe and fading optimism. He contrasts booming export-led manufacturing with strained household finances. He flags where investment is picking up and argues housing recovery is the key to reviving spending.

Joe Mazur, Trivium China’s geopolitical lead, and Even Pay, director of ag and trade policy research, join to unpack surprising US-China calm in 2026. They discuss the Busan truce, Trump’s April China visit, the Xi–Trump call, US moves in Latin America, and whether soybeans or sanctions could become bargaining chips. They also explore China’s 2026 No. 1 Document and shifts in ag policy, productivity, and rural support.

Cory Combs, supply-chain and critical minerals lead who tracks renewables, autos and energy infrastructure. Dinny McMahon, markets researcher focused on investment dynamics and fiscal limits. Joe Peissel, macro analyst specializing in GDP, trade, consumption and fixed-asset investment. They discuss China’s export surge, the steep fall in fixed asset investment, constraints on local government infrastructure spending, and prospects for autos, renewables, and State Grid’s big plan.

Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research who explains China’s macro and financial policy moves, and Linghao Bao, lead AI and semiconductor analyst who covers Chinese AI startups. They discuss Beijing’s blitz of market and credit measures to manage a slow‑growth rebound. Then they explore Chinese regulatory scrutiny of Meta’s Manus deal, the tools Beijing can use, and what it signals for AI startups.

Joe Peissel, lead macroeconomic analyst at Trivium China, joins to unpack China's recent economic data, revealing a nuanced picture behind the headlines. They discuss the slowdown in fixed asset investment and industrial output, attributing some of it to policy decisions. Despite disappointing retail sales, consumer dynamics show resilience, particularly in services. Peissel also highlights a rebound in exports and a shift toward high-value goods. Looking ahead, they anticipate targeted fiscal measures and continued infrastructure spending as part of China's recovery strategy.