The Trivium China Podcast Ep 59 - 15th FYP deep dive: industrial upgrading, solving the compute problem, and investing in people
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Mar 13, 2026 Even (Evan) Pei, Trivium director on agriculture, biotech, and health policy — outlines innovation targets for farming and healthcare. Linghao, Shanghai-based analyst specializing in semiconductors and compute — digs into China’s GPU crunch, cloud adoption, and the National Unified Computing Power Network. Corey Combs, head of supply chain and critical minerals research — examines industrial upgrading, upstream/midstream/downstream shifts, and climate-linked industrial policy.
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Fiscal Limits Will Constrain Stimulus Options
- Central fiscal stance shows no big new borrowing; budget deficit unchanged around 4% of GDP, so fiscal firepower for higher growth is limited.
- Beijing may lean on higher tax receipts and SOE remittances rather than large new stimulus.
Permitting Surplus To Spur Innovation
- The plan tolerates 'appropriate surplus capacity' in emerging industries to avoid bottlenecking innovation while pruning low-value overcapacity.
- Beijing may let firms compete aggressively in nascent sectors to rapidly prototype winning technologies.
Carbon Policy As An Industrial Tool
- Carbon policy is being used selectively as industrial policy: tighten emissions to retire old low-value capacity while promoting zero-carbon industrial parks for green manufacturing.
- Zero-carbon parks aim to offtake surplus green power and pilot carbon capture and offset flows.