Joe Peissel

Joe Peissel, lead macroeconomic analyst at Trivium China, joins to unpack China's recent economic data, revealing a nuanced picture behind the headlines. They discuss the slowdown in fixed asset investment and industrial output, attributing some of it to policy decisions. Despite disappointing retail sales, consumer dynamics show resilience, particularly in services. Peissel also highlights a rebound in exports and a shift toward high-value goods. Looking ahead, they anticipate targeted fiscal measures and continued infrastructure spending as part of China's recovery strategy.

Cory Combs, supply-chain and critical minerals lead who tracks renewables, autos and energy infrastructure. Dinny McMahon, markets researcher focused on investment dynamics and fiscal limits. Joe Peissel, macro analyst specializing in GDP, trade, consumption and fixed-asset investment. They discuss China’s export surge, the steep fall in fixed asset investment, constraints on local government infrastructure spending, and prospects for autos, renewables, and State Grid’s big plan.

In a deep dive, Joe Peissel, Head of China macroeconomic research at Trivium, sheds light on China's alarming drop in fixed asset investment and what it means for the economy heading into 2026. He reveals that a 23% plunge in real estate investment is significantly dragging down overall figures. The discussion touches on local governments diverting infrastructure funds, reshaping the landscape of economic growth. Joe also navigates the complexities of China's rule by law and its implications for governance and investment strategies.

Jeremy Stevens, Beijing-based China economist at Standard Bank with 16 years' experience, and Joe Peissel, Trivium's lead macro analyst, unpack recent monthly macro data. They highlight where growth is fragile, why manufacturing and services are unevenly strong, how exports and Africa ties matter, and why the Iran conflict could become a serious stress test for China’s fragile recovery.

Joe Peissel, Lead Macroeconomic Analyst at Trivium China, shares insights on China’s fragile consumer confidence despite a GDP growth of 4.8%. He discusses the impacts of uneven recovery and declining housing markets on consumption. Sean Stein, President of the USCBC, navigates the complexities of U.S.-China business relationships amid volatility. He highlights how the fentanyl issue can foster trust and why firms still value the China market for its speed and innovation, even amidst regulatory challenges.