SI390: When Narratives Change Faster Than Markets ft. Alan Dunne

52 snips

Mar 7, 2026

Alan Dunne, a systematic investor and trend-following specialist, offers macro commentary and portfolio perspective. He unpacks a sharp bond-market reversal. He explains how options flows can pin equity indices. He discusses trend following as crisis diversification, recent CTA performance, Miami hedge-fund takeaways, and AI’s influence on macro policy.

Ask episode

AI Snips

Chapters

Transcript

Episode notes

INSIGHT

Rapid Bond Reversal From Disinflation To Geopolitics

Bond yields reversed sharply from a disinflation narrative to stagflation fears this week, driven by geopolitics and energy price moves.
U.S. 10-year yields jumped from below 4% and 30-year yields rose even more, while equities and bonds fell together briefly.

INSIGHT

Options Flows Pin Indices Amid Hidden Dispersion

Options flows and expiries are keeping U.S. equity indices pinned despite underlying uncertainty and dispersion.
Jim explained how low surface volatility can hide rising single-stock dispersion driven by option positioning.

ANECDOTE

AlphaQuest Returned Capital After Long Drawdown

Niels reflected on AlphaQuest returning client capital after a long track record and a difficult drawdown.
He praised the firm's courage and speculated industry structural changes, including pod shops, may have influenced performance.

Get the Snipd Podcast app to discover more snips from this episode

Get the app

Markets can shift direction faster than the narratives used to explain them. In this episode, Niels and Alan unpack the sharp reversal in bond markets, the geopolitical tensions shaping energy prices, and the role of options flows in keeping equity indices pinned despite rising uncertainty beneath the surface. The conversation moves through recent hedge fund industry discussions in Miami, renewed interest in portable alpha and the total portfolio approach, and the growing influence of AI on economic thinking and policy debates. Along the way, they revisit the core role of trend following in portfolios, explaining why its value often appears precisely when traditional allocations struggle most.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Introduction to the Systematic Investor Series

01:38 – Bond market reversal and shifting macro narratives

03:29 – Options flows and the pinning of equity indices

10:13 – AlphaQuest closure and pressures in short term trading strategies

15:14 – Crisis alpha and how trend differs from a 60/40 portfolio

23:18 – Recent CTA performance and trend opportunities across markets

25:23 – Key takeaways from the Miami hedge fund conference

37:48 – AI, productivity, and the policy dilemma for the Fed

46:40 – Political dynamics behind the potential Fed leadership shift

50:13 – Trend following as the “midfield player” in portfolios

58:08 – Building a portfolio of CTAs and the challenge of tracking indices

01:07:20 – Is CTA beta stable enough to benchmark?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer