SI390: When Narratives Change Faster Than Markets ft. Alan Dunne
Top Traders Unplugged
Where trend returns come from in crises
Niels and Alan note commodities often drive crisis returns while equities may lag early in sell-offs.
Markets can shift direction faster than the narratives used to explain them. In this episode, Niels and Alan unpack the sharp reversal in bond markets, the geopolitical tensions shaping energy prices, and the role of options flows in keeping equity indices pinned despite rising uncertainty beneath the surface. The conversation moves through recent hedge fund industry discussions in Miami, renewed interest in portable alpha and the total portfolio approach, and the growing influence of AI on economic thinking and policy debates. Along the way, they revisit the core role of trend following in portfolios, explaining why its value often appears precisely when traditional allocations struggle most.
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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Introduction to the Systematic Investor Series
01:38 – Bond market reversal and shifting macro narratives
03:29 – Options flows and the pinning of equity indices
10:13 – AlphaQuest closure and pressures in short term trading strategies
15:14 – Crisis alpha and how trend differs from a 60/40 portfolio
23:18 – Recent CTA performance and trend opportunities across markets
25:23 – Key takeaways from the Miami hedge fund conference
37:48 – AI, productivity, and the policy dilemma for the Fed
46:40 – Political dynamics behind the potential Fed leadership shift
50:13 – Trend following as the “midfield player” in portfolios
58:08 – Building a portfolio of CTAs and the challenge of tracking indices
01:07:20 – Is CTA beta stable enough to benchmark?
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