Trend following as crisis alpha vs 60/40

Markets can shift direction faster than the narratives used to explain them. In this episode, Niels and Alan unpack the sharp reversal in bond markets, the geopolitical tensions shaping energy prices, and the role of options flows in keeping equity indices pinned despite rising uncertainty beneath the surface. The conversation moves through recent hedge fund industry discussions in Miami, renewed interest in portable alpha and the total portfolio approach, and the growing influence of AI on economic thinking and policy debates. Along the way, they revisit the core role of trend following in portfolios, explaining why its value often appears precisely when traditional allocations struggle most.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Introduction to the Systematic Investor Series

01:38 – Bond market reversal and shifting macro narratives

03:29 – Options flows and the pinning of equity indices

10:13 – AlphaQuest closure and pressures in short term trading strategies

15:14 – Crisis alpha and how trend differs from a 60/40 portfolio

23:18 – Recent CTA performance and trend opportunities across markets

25:23 – Key takeaways from the Miami hedge fund conference

37:48 – AI, productivity, and the policy dilemma for the Fed

46:40 – Political dynamics behind the potential Fed leadership shift

50:13 – Trend following as the “midfield player” in portfolios

58:08 – Building a portfolio of CTAs and the challenge of tracking indices

01:07:20 – Is CTA beta stable enough to benchmark?

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