Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes How to defend Ukraine after a ceasefire
Feb 27, 2026
Jennifer Kavanagh, senior fellow and director of military analysis at Defense Priorities, outlines an "armed nonalignment" for Ukraine. She discusses deterrence-focused defenses, force-size and reserve estimates, territorial trade-offs like fortress belts, costs and logistics of long-term support, and how U.S. retrenchment and transatlantic ties shape Kyiv’s options.
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Kavanagh Explains Her Restrained U.S. Foreign Policy View
- Jennifer Kavanagh describes her restrained worldview: favoring U.S. retrenchment and smaller forward footprints in Europe and the Middle East.
- She argues the U.S. is secure geographically and prefers shifting resources to domestic priorities rather than large overseas militaries.
Why Article 5 Guarantees Would Be Hollow
- NATO‑style Article 5 guarantees for Ukraine are not credible given current willingness to deploy forces.
- Jennifer Kavanagh argues offering non‑credible commitments would weaken NATO credibility and not secure Ukraine.
Adopt Armed Nonalignment Not Legal Neutrality
- Adopt non‑alignment as a flexible policy rather than strict legal neutrality to retain security partnerships.
- Ukraine can join the EU, train with European forces, and get peacetime weapons and wartime surge aid without alliance membership.
