The bear in the Baltics: Reassessing the Russian threat in Estonia

Co-authored by Jennifer Kavanagh and Jeremy Shapiro, this ECFR publication evaluates the nature and credibility of the Russian threat to Estonia, challenging prevailing assumptions about Moscow's intentions and capabilities in the Baltic region.

It explores military, political, and strategic dimensions of Russia's posture, offering recommendations for Estonia's defense planning and broader NATO deterrence strategies.

The work situates Estonia within regional dynamics and examines scenarios under which Russian coercion or limited aggression might be attempted.

It emphasizes tailored defense measures, intelligence cooperation, and the need for calibrated Western responses to reduce misperception-driven escalations.

The analysis contributes to debates on European burden-sharing and the adequacy of current deterrence postures in the Baltics.