SpaceX Road to IPO, with Jack Kuhr (Research Director of Payload Pro)

Feb 4, 2026

Jack Kuhr, Research Director at Payload Pro and aerospace finance modeler of SpaceX and Starlink, joins to map SpaceX’s transformation into a vertically integrated platform. He discusses Starlink overtaking launch, terminal and regulatory constraints, international and aviation/maritime growth, Starlink Lite vs ISPs, Starship’s potential to reshape economics, and the strategic link between SpaceX, xAI, and Tesla.

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INSIGHT

Starlink Is Becoming Mostly International

The US share of Starlink customers fell from majority to ~25% and keeps declining as international customers climb.
SpaceX accepts lower ARPU abroad to prioritize scale over immediate per-user revenue.

INSIGHT

Terminal Pricing Is A Growth Lever

In high-demand markets SpaceX often gives terminals away, while in lower-penetration countries it still charges for hardware.
Terminal pricing is used dynamically as a growth lever and to cap demand where needed.

INSIGHT

Aviation And Maritime Momentum

Aviation and maritime are underappreciated Starlink verticals with strong traction and high growth.
Maritime already reached roughly 150,000 customers and aviation wins many contracts.

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In this episode of Valley of Depth, we sit down with Jack Kuhr, Payload Pro’s Research Director, to unpack what SpaceX has become on the eve of what could be the largest IPO in history. What began as a launch company has evolved into a vertically integrated platform spanning launch, satellites, global connectivity, and potentially AI and compute in space.This is the first in a series of conversations where we’ll regularly update our audience on the latest developments shaping SpaceX and its impact on the broader space economy.

We discuss:

How Starlink has overtaken launch as SpaceX’s primary growth engine
Why Starlink’s constraints are more likely terminals, regulation, and physics—not satellites
How international markets are powering the next phase of Starlink’s expansion
Why aviation and maritime are the most underappreciated Starlink verticals
Whether Starlink “Lite” can meaningfully take share from traditional ISPs
How Starship and Starlink V3 could upend Falcon 9 economics
Why the SpaceX–xAI merger points to a fully integrated space, connectivity, and AI stack

• Chapters •

00:00 - Intro
01:09 - Jack's role at Payload and what is it
04:06 - Jack's revenue model for SpaceX
08:06 - Launch and Starlink
09:23 - Is SpaceX privatizing launch or is there less demand?
12:07 - Starlink's current revenue runway trajectory
14:31 - 2026 projects and potential growth pains
16:41 - Starlink constraints
19:00 - US vs international customers
19:53 - Starlink terminal sales
21:10 - What is currently under appreciated about Starlink's verticals?
22:52 - Starlink Light
24:34 - Competition from GEO broadband providers
33:07 - Starship
34:45 - When will Starlink launch their first commercial, non Starlink payloads
38:22 - Is SpaceX serious about space based data centers?
42:06 - SpaceX x Tesla x xAI

• Show notes •

Payload Pro’s website — https://pro.payloadspace.com/
Jack’s socials — https://x.com/JackKuhr
Mo's socials — https://x.com/itsmoislam
Payload’s socials — https://twitter.com/payloadspace / https://www.linkedin.com/company/payloadspace
Ignition’s socials — https://twitter.com/ignitionnuclear /
https://www.linkedin.com/company/ignition-nuclear/
Tectonic’s socials — https://twitter.com/tectonicdefense / https://www.linkedin.com/company/tectonicdefense/
Valley of Depth archive — Listen: https://pod.payloadspace.com/

• About us •

Valley of Depth is a podcast about the technologies that matter — and the people building them. Brought to you by Arkaea Media, the team behind Payload (space), Ignition (nuclear energy), and Tectonic (defense tech), this show goes beyond headlines and hype. We talk to founders, investors, government officials, and military leaders shaping the future of national security and deep tech. From breakthrough science to strategic policy, we dive into the high-stakes decisions behind the world’s hardest technologies.